Logic of War

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Don't forget the agency of small states

Russia's war economy is unsustainable

Hello. In this video I discuss the Russian war economy. It is a myth that Russia has endless resources and will inevitably win over Ukraine in a long war of attrition. In reality the Russian economy is struggling, and personally I think we will look back at the war some

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Ammunition depots and the strategic value of ranged attacks

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Russia now attacks cargo ships in the Black Sea

Why is NATO not responding to Russian provocations?

Hello all, It looks like Russia has intensified their hybrid campaign against the West, and recently there have also been several examples of violations of NATO airspace with Russian drones. However, the Western response remains remarkably calm. In this video, which I published earlier in the week, I discuss why

Russia Featured

Will the war spread to Belarus?

Frontline update video – september 2024

Hello. I just released a new video where I try to give an overview of the frontline situation. I focus on Kursk, Donetsk, and the strategic air campaign. The most important point is probably that I think much of the news reporting on the Russian progress against Pokrovsk is bordering

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Why does the Russian military trust Telegram?

Ukraine can face a bigger Russian army

Hello all. I have released this new video where I discuss what the Russian reaction will be to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Putin faces a big dilemma, and he desperately needs more soldiers to deal with a much longer frontline. The most likely scenario is that he will

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Did the U.S. approve of Ukraine's plans to attack Kursk?

Ukraine's attack into the Kursk region

Hello, I just released this video about Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region. It's a development that has left many people confused and we still don't have a complete picture of what's going on. In this video I offer some

Russia Featured

What the prisoner swap shows about negotiations with Putin

Ukraine and Russia are still far from real negotiations

Hello everyone. I just published this video about why both Russia and Ukraine right now put a lot of effort into looking like they want negotiations, when in reality they aren't ready to make the necessary compromises. It is therefore somewhat a meta talk about what the talk

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Why has Ukraine not destroyed the Crimean Bridge?

Ukraine Featured

Ukraine gives up on crossing the Dnipro – for now at least

Time for a new Ukrainian offensive?

Hello, I have just released this video where I discuss the potential of a new Ukrainian offensive. It's possible that Russia's current offensive will culminate within the coming months, and usually that is a good time for the adversary to launch a counteroffensive. So what are

Friends of Ukraine Roundtable

I have been on Jake Broe's Friends of Ukraine Roundtable livestream together with Brandon Mitchell. Philip Ittner was also supposed to be there but unfortunately he lost his internet connection as he was calling in from Kyiv during a power outage. We talked about Russian war crimes, the

Ukraine Featured

An effective air defense for Ukraine

The terrible airstrikes on Ukrainian cities on Monday that also hit a pediatric hospital has again raised the question of how to improve the air defenses so such things can’t happen. Unfortunately, no air defense system is flawless, and it will never be possible to reduce the number of

How is the war going? — July 2024

In this video I give an overview of the frontline. There has been a long period of grinding fighting where the media attention has been relatively low, so it can be hard to keep track of events. As usual, you can see the video here or read a transcript below.

United States Featured

The problem with Donald Trump's peace plan for Ukraine

In 2019, President Trump suggested that the United States should buy Greenland from Denmark. When asked to explain the proposal, Donald Trump said that he saw it as “a large real estate deal”, and that it would make strategic sense for the United States to take over the ownership of

Kyiv Post interview

Hello all, I just want to let you know about this interview that I did with the Kyiv Post. It is an 11 minutes video interview where Jason Jay Smart and I discuss the big picture in the war. We start with the topic of war crimes that was also

Russia's view on the ICC and war crimes

I just published this video about the arrest warrants on Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov. It has not received as much attention as it deserves that Russia's former defense minister and the current chief of the general staff are wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges

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What are sunbathing tourists doing in a war zone?

This week, a Ukrainian long-range missile strike hit a beach in Sevastopol on Crimea. The beach was full of sunbathing tourists, and the attack was conducted with an ATACMS missile with a cluster munition warhead. Footage shows how most of the bomblets land in the water, but some also hit

Ukraine now uses drones for air-to-air combat

The static frontline in Ukraine is to a large extent a result of the drone technology which favors defensive operations. Both sides are able to defend themselves, but neither is able to make large breakthroughs. It is therefore interesting that we have lately seen examples of how the Ukrainians use

NATO Featured

European NATO countries (mostly) fulfilled their promises

NATO has just published the statistics of defense expenditure of the member countries between 2014 and 2024. NATO publishes such documents from time to time, but the numbers were particularly interesting this time. The reason for that is that 2024 marks a decade since the famous Wales Summit that took