Frontline update video – september 2024

Hello.

I just released a new video where I try to give an overview of the frontline situation. I focus on Kursk, Donetsk, and the strategic air campaign. The most important point is probably that I think much of the news reporting on the Russian progress against Pokrovsk is bordering on hysterical.

As usual you can see the video here or read a transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

In this video, I want to give an overview of the frontline situation in Ukraine, and Russia, I guess. I will talk about the situation in Kursk, then about the frontline in Ukraine, and more specifically about the Donetsk region. And then I'm also going to talk a bit about the strategic air campaign that both sides have going on right now. And I will try to keep it pretty short, because I think when we follow the debate about the war, I think the biggest challenge is actually right now to keep the big picture for people. So there are so many stories about separate elements in the war, and it can be hard to put it all together and decide what's important and what's less important. So let's talk about it.

As usual, I'm using maps from DeepStateMap.Live. And if we start in the Kursk region, then we're approaching the one-month mark since the Ukrainians launched the incursion. And in that time, they've taken quite a significant chunk of territory inside Russia. It has been slowing down over the last week. The expansion has started to slow down, and we are beginning to see a more static situation when we look at the frontline in the area. But if we look at the map, then the most significant area under Ukrainian control is obviously this one here to the east, because it's the biggest area.

But the Ukrainians have also taken an area over here to the west. And the interesting thing about this is this area here in between, because it's essentially walled off with Ukraine to the south, and then the Ukrainians also control both the east and the west. And to the north, there is a river called the River Seym, and Ukraine has destroyed all the bridges across this river. The Russians keep upsetting new pontoon bridges, but the Ukrainians also keep destroying them. So I think it's fair to assume that over the coming weeks, then Ukraine will probably take this whole area south of the Seym River. So the Ukrainian expansion in the Kursk region has definitely slowed down since the first couple of weeks, but there is still this area that we should probably expect that the Ukrainians will take in the coming time.

If we move on to the frontline inside Ukraine, then the big picture is that the frontline has stabilized in most areas, a very significant exception, but really in most areas along the frontline, the Russians are not making significant progress at this time. And there can be several reasons for this. Russia has taken soldiers from parts of the frontline, especially in the southern sector in the Zaporizhia region, and they've moved them to Kursk to try to get the situation there under control. So that's definitely one factor that is contributing to this. But another explanation might also be that Russia has just prioritized to use their resources to create results in this one area where they have the main effort instead of sort of sprinkling resources around across many places. And that would actually be a smart decision because it is one of the weaknesses that the Russians have had in the war until now, that they have had a hard time focusing their resources and that they have just spent a lot of resources in many places.

But either way, what we're seeing is that Russia is not making progress in most places, but that they are in the Donetsk region, they are making progress and especially toward the city of Pokrovsk. If we look at the map, then over the month of August, the Russians have been able to progress about 20 kilometers toward the city. We should probably expect that during the month of September, the Russian forces will reach the city and the battle for Pokrovsk will begin.

That is absolutely not good news for the Ukrainians. And there is now a discussion in Ukraine about what are the reasons for this, because when the situation is that it has stabilized pretty much everywhere else in Ukraine on the front line, and they're having a lot of success in the Kursk region, then of course, it jumps in the eyes that you have this one area where things are not going well, where things are going in the wrong direction. And that is also happening at a pace that it's maybe not quick, I think that would be a wrong way to describe it, but it is definitely significant. So there is a discussion about whether the military commanders in this area have made mistakes, if they don't understand the situation, if they have not taken the necessary steps to build trenches and prepare defense lines and those sorts of things. And there's also been a debate about whether it was a mistake for the Ukrainians to use so many resources in the Kursk region, instead of putting more resources into trying to stabilize this one front line in Donetsk.

I think it's difficult to have very strong opinions about this, just based on the information that we have at this point. So it's possible that mistakes were made and that the situation could have been better. But I also think it's a mistake to get caught up in these discussions if you want to see the big picture. So what I want to do instead is to offer a few reflections about what's going on in Donetsk.

The first thing I'll say is that this is the main axis of the Russian summer offensive. This is where they are concentrating their forces and where they are channeling most of the available firepower. So if you're up against that, then you would usually expect to be losing territory. That is a part of how you conduct defensive operations. So when you follow the news coverage of what's going on, then you could get the impression that the situation is very dramatic and that it's a huge problem that the Ukrainians have not been able to bring the whole Russian offensive to complete halt in all sectors of the front line. But I think that's a misunderstanding of what defensive operations actually look like. It is not the goal to hold every kilometer of terrain at all costs, but it is rather the goal to focus on maximizing the losses for the enemy. So you make the enemy fight really hard for every meter of territory, but you also do give away some territory in that process.

So that's my first point. Ukraine is conducting defensive operations in Donetsk, and it's not surprising that you are moving backwards when you are defending. Then we can, of course, discuss the pace, but the direction in itself is not problematic, really, from a military point of view.

The second point that I will make is that the fighting in Donetsk is right now taking place in open territory. It will slow down significantly when the Russians get to the city limits, and then the urban combat will begin, and it's very hard. The city of Pokrovsk is probably going to be – it's going to be absolutely destroyed, but it's going to take the Russians a long time to take this city. Pokrovsk is about the same size as Bakhmut, and it might take them something between six months to maybe up to a year to just take the city. That would not be surprising if we look at how these things have played out in the past. And then there are other cities as well in the Donetsk region that Russia also still hasn't taken. So, what I'm getting at with this is that there is a lot of work left for the Russian army before they can declare that, well, its mission accomplished in Donetsk. And to be honest, I'm not sure it's realistic that they will ever be able to do that, and at least it's not something that's going to happen anytime soon.

And the last point is that it's important to keep in mind that when we look at what's happening in Pokrovsk and we read the alarmist headlines about it, that even if Russia manages to occupy the entire Donetsk region, then that does not mean that they win the war. It just means that the front line runs somewhere else, and it will be a little further west, but the Ukrainian army will still be there. They will still be able to fight, and the Russian army will also still be there and will be able to fight, and they're going to continue fighting in other places because they have more goals than just to take the Donetsk region.

So, what I'm getting at is that, one, it's not actually surprising that the Russians are able to make progress in the area where they have the main effort in this big offensive. Two, at this current pace, the Russians still have, they will have several years of fighting before they take the entirety of the Donetsk region. And three, even if they do take all of Donetsk region, then that still doesn't mean that they won the war. So, I think it's important that we calm down a bit in all these discussions about the current Russian push against the city of Pokrovsk.

The last thing I want to mention is that the long-range air campaigns that both sides are conducting are really playing an important role. So, there has been a lot of talk about the Russian airstrikes on Ukraine over the last week, and especially that they've had quite a bit of success at hitting Ukrainian power infrastructure. And it's quite possible that the lack of electricity can become a big problem for the Ukrainians in a couple of months when it gets cold, when the winter comes.

But I think that perhaps even more interesting to notice, and I think it's going a bit under the radar, is the Ukrainian air campaign against Russia. Ukraine has introduced new types of drones, they have demonstrated a new cruise missile that they have developed. And we're seeing that the Ukrainians are really having a lot of success at hitting both Russian air bases, but also Russian oil facilities, and it's basically all of Western Russia.

There is a lot of talk in the media about whether the Western countries at this point should allow the Ukrainians to use Western weapons for deep strikes into Russia, especially this is... There's a pressure on the Americans about this, and I think that would absolutely be something that would make a difference. So, I think it would be a good idea. But it's interesting that Ukraine is actually developing and using capabilities to do this themselves, and that it is now at a level where it's going to create significant problems for the Russians in the long run.

So, what we're seeing is probably a result of a combination of two things. So, on the one hand, that the Ukrainians, they now have the capability to conduct these strikes into Russia, they've developed the technology, they have the production lines, so they can produce these drones at scale. And then, on the other hand, it's also a result of the fact that the Russians have a shortage of air defense systems. So, there's been a long period of time where the Ukrainians have had a long campaign, where they have specifically targeted Russian air defense systems, and we're beginning to see the results of that. That the Russians are forced to prioritize what targets do they want to protect, and what targets are they going to leave undefended. And that's interesting because it's a dynamic that is still developing, and I think we should expect that these Ukrainian airstrikes will have a bigger and bigger impact in Russia over time.

Okay, this was supposed to be a brief overview, so I'm going to stop it here. If you found it helpful or informative, then please give it a like. And also remember to subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon to get notifications when I upload new videos. And if you want to support the channel, then you can subscribe to my newsletter. It's on www.logicofwar.com. Thank you very much for watching, and I will see you again next time.