Ukraine's plan for victory and the lack of Western strategy
Over the past month, there has been a lot of talk about the Ukrainian plan for victory that President Zelensky has presented to Western leaders during visits to the United States and European capitals. There’s been much speculation about the contents of the plan, but yesterday some of the details were officially revealed. This happened when Zelenskyy presented the plan to the Ukrainian parliament.
The plan contains five points, and there are three secret addenda that have not been shared with the public. We should expect the secret parts to include details about how Ukraine will achieve the goals such as specific weapon types or targets they would like to strike.
I will not go into all the details, but here is a quick overview of the five points:
1. Ukraine should receive an official invitation to join NATO. This does not mean that Ukraine will join NATO immediately, but Zelensky clearly wants to separate the discussion about NATO membership from potential peace talks with Russia. If Ukraine receives an official invitation now, then it's easier to dismiss Russian demands about Ukrainian neutrality as irrelevant.
2. Bring the war into Russian territory. The Kursk Offensive is an example of how Ukraine wants to push the front line onto Russian territory, and this will be combined this with an effective long-range strike campaign against Russian logistics. There isn’t much new here because this is already what Ukraine is trying to do, but they are looking for increased Western support.
3. A comprehensive non-nuclear deterrence package. This is about ensuring that Russia will be deterred from starting a new war against Ukraine in the future. This part of the plan is a bit elusive and it is unclear what this non-nuclear deterrence entails. I’ve seen a lot of speculation about what Zelensky is hinting at, but my own hunch is that we are talking about NATO boots on the ground as a tripwire force.
4. Economic aspects. Ukraine wants to attract Western investments, and Zelensky argues that there are good business opportunities in Ukraine, especially related to the extraction of natural resources. This point also includes tougher sanctions against Russia.
5. Ukraine’s role in the future European security architecture. After the war is over, Ukraine will have one of the strongest, most modern, and battle-experienced military forces in Europe. Zelensky argues that Ukrainian soldiers can replace American soldiers in European countries, which will free up American resources for security challenges in East Asia.
Is the plan modest or unrealistic?
Two things are striking about the plan. The first one is that Ukraine’s requests are quite modest. They want to be equipped to fight the war in the only way that makes sense, namely a ranged strike campaign. This is how NATO would fight such a war, and it is the only meaningful way to break down the Russian war machine. But for various reasons, Ukraine has so far almost exclusively received equipment to fight the Russian soldiers along the front line.
And then, once the war is over, Ukraine wants security guarantees akin to those of other European countries to deter Russia from starting a new war in a few years. In exchange for those security guarantees, Ukraine is willing to contribute to the security of other countries for the benefit of the Western alliance. It really doesn't seem like excessive things to ask for if the West shares Ukraine's goals of winning the war and becoming a part of the Western security architecture.
The second striking thing is how lukewarm the reception has been in the West. President Biden was apparently unimpressed when Zelensky presented the victory plan, and the knee-jerk reaction from many Western commentators has been that Ukraine can’t possibly expect to get all the things they ask for.
The disparity is stark. On one hand, Ukraine is asking for something that must be considered close to a minimum if the West wants to equip Ukraine to win the war. On the other hand, the reaction from the West is to say that Ukraine is asking for too much.
Now it's up to the West to clarify the strategy
This has led some Western analysts to wonder why exactly Ukraine is presenting this plan, given that they ought to know it is unrealistic. I think there are two fairly simple reasons why Zelensky has chosen to do this. The first point is that Western politicians have long been complaining about the lack of a clear Ukrainian strategy or a plan for victory. This was Mike Johnson’s primary talking point while the U.S. assistance package was stalled in Congress last winter and spring. By presenting this victory plan, the Ukrainians are making it harder for Western politicians to pretend they don’t know what the strategy is.
But more importantly, the Ukrainians have now passed the ball to the Western leaders. They have stated what they believe is necessary to win the war and bring about a lasting peace on conditions that are favorable to the West. What is missing now is for Western leaders to do something similar. If Western leaders are unimpressed with Zelensky’s plan or believe that he is asking for too much, they need to specify what aspects of the plan they disagree with. This will obviously be hard because it pushes Western leaders beyond the slogans of “helping Ukraine for as long as it takes” and into specific discussions about the outcome we would like to see from the war.
It is probably too much to expect that the presentation of this Ukrainian plan for victory will lead to serious strategic discussions in the West. But one can always hope, because it is getting increasingly evident that the lack of a clear Western strategy is one of the biggest problems Ukraine faces in fighting this war.