Ukraine and Russia are still far from real negotiations

Hello everyone.

I just published this video about why both Russia and Ukraine right now put a lot of effort into looking like they want negotiations, when in reality they aren't ready to make the necessary compromises. It is therefore somewhat a meta talk about what the talk is about. And as with most other things these days, I find that it is actually about the American election.

I wanted to record the video in a place where it would be easy to recognize my location, but it was too busy. Therefore it ended up more difficult than intended. But feel free to write your guess in the comments.

Best,
Anders


Transcript:

There's a lot of talk about peace right now. Russia is talking about peace. Ukraine is talking about peace. People in the West are talking about peace. The Chinese are talking about peace. So one might get the impression that we are close to real peace negotiations since everyone is talking about possible roads to peace. Unfortunately, I don't think that is the case. But in this video, I want to talk about what all this talk about peace negotiations actually is about. So let's talk about it.

As you can see, I'm traveling right now. But I wanted to make this quick video about what all this talk about peace is about. Because I think it's easy to get the wrong impression if you just follow the news. You might get the idea that we are pretty close to real negotiations. And our policymakers might get that idea as well. And then it might start influencing the policies that we make. But I think it's one of those cases where the devil is in the detail. And you have to look really carefully at what the different stakeholders are saying before we jump to assumptions about how close we actually are to peace negotiations.

And if we take the Russians first, then they're talking a lot about peace and how they are open to negotiations. This was, for example, very obvious when Viktor Orban was in Moscow and he met with Putin a couple of weeks ago. And Putin said that he is absolutely open to negotiations. But then he also reiterated that when he's talking about negotiations, then what he means is negotiations according to the plan that he has outlined. He outlined that in a meeting in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs last month. And I made a video about that. But the short version is that before any negotiations can begin, then Ukraine has to withdraw from large areas of territory. Then the Russians can take over and then the negotiations can begin. And the negotiations would be about Ukraine's unconditional capitulation. That's the short story. So what they will be negotiating about is the practicalities of how Ukraine can basically give Russia everything they want. And that is total control over all of Ukraine.

And then another thing that often happens when the Russians talk about peace is that they use it as a kind of political trolling where they try to create uncertainty about the legitimacy of the country. About the legitimacy of the government in Kiev. So they will make some claims about the Ukrainian constitution and what it says about elections during times of martial law and those kinds of things. And these claims will be wrong. That's not actually what the Ukrainian constitution says. But the point that they're trying to make is that they want to sideline President Zelensky by saying that if there are going to be any kind of negotiations, then they will only negotiate with representatives from the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada. And who knows, maybe someday there will maybe be a situation where the United States will be pushing Ukraine into negotiations and their attitude will be something like, "well, who cares if they negotiate with the parliament instead of the president. Just let them negotiate with whomever they want". And then that will undermine the office of the president in Ukraine and it will undermine the entire political system. So even though this narrative about the Ukrainian constitution, it's wrong, then the Russians keep repeating it because over time it might help them get political control over Ukraine.

So that is the Russian talk about peace. They say some of the right words, so people in the West who will maybe only hear the sound bites, they will assume that the Russians are open to negotiations. But in reality, they're just repeating the same demands that they have said since the beginning of the full scale invasion, and they are using the talk about negotiations as a tool to undermine the legitimacy of the political system in Ukraine.

And there's Ukraine. They are also talking a lot about negotiations. Zelensky recently said that in his mind it is actually possible that the hot phase of the war can be over before the end of the year. And by "hot phase", he meant the actual fighting. And that maybe it is realistic that the war can basically be done by Christmas and then the rest can be sorted out through negotiations. So that sounds very optimistic.

But again, you have to listen to the details of what he's actually saying before you jump to conclusions about the meaning. And what he said was actually not all that optimistic. What he said was that if the international community stands together and puts pressure on Russia, then Russia will have to acknowledge that it is impossible to win the war and that they will have to make compromises. And in that case, from a Ukrainian point of view, they don't see a need to necessarily liberate the territory in a military way. They will be happy to see a liberation as a result of a negotiated solution.

So in other words, the negotiations that Zelensky is talking about would be negotiations about the practicalities of how Russia can withdraw from Ukraine's territory. So we have two sides that both claim that they are absolutely open to negotiations. But when you look beneath the surface, then what they're talking about is negotiations about how the other side can capitulate. And, you know, that's actually not all that noteworthy. Pretty much everyone who is fighting a war would at any given time be willing to negotiate about how the other side can surrender.

But if Russia and Ukraine haven't actually moved or changed their position, then why are they putting so much effort into pretending that they have? And I think the explanation can more or less be boiled down to Donald Trump. Everything right now is about American politics. And that will be the case until after the election in November. But both of these sides, Russia and Ukraine, they're trying to prepare for the potentiality that Donald Trump will win the election. And Donald Trump has talked a lot about how he will create peace in Ukraine in 24 hours. And apparently he has some kind of plan for how to do that. And it's pretty clear that both Russia and Ukraine understand that this will not work. That whatever plan it is that Donald Trump has, it will not actually bring about any peace. So they know that the plan won't work. And they also know that when the plan doesn't work, then Trump will have to assign the blame for the plan not working to somebody. And they don't want that somebody to be them.

So they want Trump to blame the other side. So basically, all this talk about peace negotiations from both Russia and Ukraine, it's something they do to simulate a willingness to negotiate. So that when Trump's plan doesn't work, then he will punish the other side. If Russia wins this competition of making Trump believe that it's the Ukrainian's fault, that his brilliant peace plan doesn't work, then Trump will decrease or maybe he will stop entirely the military aid from the United States to Ukraine. And if Ukraine wins the competition, then Trump will punish Putin by increasing the military aid to Ukraine.

So that is the primary reason why both Ukraine and Russia are talking so much about peace negotiations right now. It's about trying to avoid a potential disaster if Trump is elected and maybe even turn things around to get the best out of the situation. But doing this is it's not without risk. And I think especially for Ukraine, because as I said in the beginning, there is a risk that all this talk about potential upcoming negotiations, it can lead to policymakers and citizens believing that peace is closer than it actually is. And Ukraine is also dependent on people having a sense of urgency and an understanding of what is at stake if Russia wins the war. So they need the politicians in the West to make long term commitments and to support Ukraine and invest in the defense industry, so it will be possible to win a war of attrition.

And when Zelensky goes around and talks about peace negotiations and says that this is around the corner and how the hot phrase of the war might be over before Christmas, then that can have a counterproductive effect in the West. So I think what we're going to see is that this talk about peace negotiations, it's going to continue until the American election is over. But depending on how things are looking in the presidential race, then we're going to see more or we're going to see less of it. If it looks like Trump is going to win, then they're going to talk more about how eager they are to negotiate. And if it starts looking like Harris is going to win, then I think they're going to tone it down a bit. At least Ukraine will tone it down. Not so much because they are more or less invested in finding a peaceful solution, but because there is room for moreā€¦ Let's call it realism in the messaging. So the Ukrainians will still continue to have their process of peace summits where they will try to gather international support behind the plan that they have for a post-war Ukraine. But we will see fewer of those comments that are just way over the top. So Zelensky will probably stop talking about how the war can be over by Christmas. And he will talk more about the need to be prepared for the war to last several years into the future.

Okay, I will end it here. Thank you very much for watching and I will see you again next time.