Ukraine's attack into the Kursk region

Hello,

I just released this video about Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region. It's a development that has left many people confused and we still don't have a complete picture of what's going on. In this video I offer some perspectives about what Ukraine might be trying to achieve and what is says about the direction of the war.

Watch the video here or read a transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

I just got home from vacation and I was actually planning on starting out with a video about something easy like my view on social media or something like that. But then Ukraine launched an incursion into the Kursk region of Russia. And I think for most people this was like one of those "what the hell" kind of moments. Like when Prigozhin started his march on Moscow last year. So when you watch what's going on, it's hard to make sense of things because we need more time to see how things develop before we can really get all the information, and we know what they're trying to do, and we can start evaluating whether or not things are working out the way they wanted.

But now we are about two days into this Ukrainian attack into Russian proper and I think we're beginning to get an idea about the scale of what's going on and we can also start making some assessments about what it is that Ukraine is trying to achieve. We still don't have the full picture but in this video I do want to offer a couple of suggestions about how I think about it and how I think we can maybe try to understand what it is Ukraine is trying to do, and also the broader context about what it says about the war as a whole and the direction things are going in. So let's talk about it.

I'm not going to go into all the details about troop movements, exactly where the fighting is taking place, those kinds of things. But I do think that we can by now say a bit about what it is Ukraine is trying to do by looking at the scale of what's happening. The first thing to note is that this is definitely bigger than the previous raids that we have seen that Ukraine has conducted on Ukrainian territory. So we've had these instances before where some Ukrainian forces or some of the Russian volunteer forces that are fighting for Ukraine, that they have crossed the border, they've blown up some stuff in Russia, they've taken some prisoners, they've taken a bunch of photos and then they've returned back to Ukraine.

And this time it's much bigger. We can see that by the number of soldiers that Ukraine is using but we can also see it by the types of equipment that are being destroyed in the process. So for example, the Russians have shown that the Ukrainians brought a Buk air defense system into Russia. They have released a video about how they destroyed that Buk system. This is a valuable system. That's a significant loss when Ukraine loses an air defense system like that. So the fact that they were willing to take that risk, it shows that this is not just a PR stunt.

So what's happening here is definitely bigger than a raid. But I've also seen some people suggesting that maybe this is the beginning of a whole new big Ukrainian offensive into Russia and Ukraine can maybe take the city of Kursk and those sorts of things. And I also don't think that's what's happening because we have to remember that Ukraine gets most of their military equipment from the Western countries today. And many of those countries will be concerned when Ukraine does these kinds of things. They're afraid of escalation, those sorts of things. So that is going to put some limitations on the types of equipment, the quantities of equipment that Ukraine can use for this offensive.

So I think scale wise we can say that what's happening here, it's definitely bigger than the raids we've seen before. But I also think we should still understand this as a limited operation where the Ukrainians will probably take a bit of territory and then they will probably dig in. So it will be hard for the Russians to push them out again. At least I think that's what it looks like at this point.

So why are they doing this? A few weeks ago, I made a video about what Ukraine should do if the current Russian offensive reaches the point of culmination. And I think this Ukrainian attack into Russia, it can be understood in that context. So the Ukrainians expect that the Russian summer offensive is coming to an end. Recently there have been some statements that they expect the Russian progress to stop within the next six to eight weeks. And as I discussed in that video, this is actually a problem for Ukraine. Or it gives them a dilemma because the current Ukrainian strategy depends on the Russians continuing to attack because the Ukrainian idea is to cause attrition on the Russians while having the defensive advantage.

So in that video, I discussed whether we were going to see the Ukrainians take some kind of offensive initiative, and this attack into the Kursk region can be understood in that context. It was something that the Ukrainians could do fairly easily because this area was not well defended. They were able to very quickly take some territory in Russia. But for the Russian army, it's not going to be optional if they want to take it back. So if the Ukrainians can actually dig in, in this area, then that might be a way to deny the Russian army the opportunity to take a break because the Russians have to push the Ukrainians out again and the Ukrainians will be able to continue the fight as a defensive operation with all the advantages that come with that.

So in that sense, this attack into Russia does two things for Ukraine. First, it's a diversion operation because Russia will have to divert resources away from the main effort in Donetsk to throw the Ukrainians out again from the Kursk region. And this can potentially mean that the Russian offensive in Donetsk reaches the point of culmination sooner than it otherwise would have done. And if the Russians don't divert resources from Donetsk, then Ukraine might continue and take more territory in Kursk and they will have more time to fortify themselves. So it's a diversion operation. And at the same time, it can also ensure that the Russians will have to stay on the offensive for a longer period of time because they won't be able to take an operational pause even after reaching the point of culmination of the summer offensive.

The second thing I will say is that we need to understand this in a broader context where the war is going to move more and more into Russia. And this is a process that's been going on for a while. When the invasion began, then everything was happening on Ukrainian territory. But now we're seeing drone attacks into Russia. We've seen raids across the border into Russia. And this is a continuation of that development.

And the reason why this is happening is that Ukraine has identified these attacks into Russia as being essential for their chances of ending the war on terms that are acceptable. As I've said in other videos, the only thing that is more important for Putin than winning the war in Ukraine is to keep the power in Russia. And ultimately, this war is very much about regime security in Russia. Putin started the war because he thought it was important for the long-term perspectives for regime security. And he still believes that is the case.

So the only way Ukraine can make Putin stop the war is if they can turn it into a bigger regime security risk to continue the war and then to end it. We can say that the Ukrainians have to bring the war home to the Russians because that is how they can create domestic pressure on Putin to end the war. So no matter how things will go with this attack into the Kursk region, we need to understand that there is this development where the war is going to take more and more place on Russian territory.

And that's also one of the problems, actually, with the Biden administration's approach to escalation management. There's been this idea that if we don't give Ukraine all the weapons that they ask for, then we can sort of micromanage the war and limit it to a certain level of intensity. But that's actually what's actually happening is that the war is going to take longer and that it's going to move more and more into Russian territory. So my personal view is that this very careful attempt at escalation management, it's actually going to lead to more escalation in the end. And by now we have brigade level warfare that is taking place in Russia's Kursk region.

And in connection with the Ukrainian attempt to put domestic pressure on Putin by bringing the war home to the Russians, then it's also important to be aware of the role of conscript soldiers in the Russian army. Putin has so far been very reluctant to use conscripts in the war with Ukraine. And the reason for that is about domestic politics and the fact that it would just be extremely unpopular in Russia to send conscripts into battle because they're not volunteers and also because conscription is something that touches many families in Russia. There are many young men that are going through conscription right now or that will be going through conscription in the coming years. And they have mothers and fathers and cousins and siblings. So if you start using conscripts in the war, then all these people are going to be afraid on a personal level about the safety of themselves or their loved ones. And they might start getting dissatisfied with the government that is waging this war.

So for reasons of regime security, the Russian army has essentially been divided into two different kinds of armies. There is one army that is fighting in Ukraine and it consists of people that have more or less volunteered to be there. And then there is another army, which is the conscript army. And here the conscripts are going through the same kind of training that they've always done and it's not being used in Ukraine.

But Russia's Kursk region is not defined as part of the battle zone. And it means that it was actually protected by conscript units. So Ukraine's attack into Kursk therefore creates a dilemma for Putin because either he will now have to accept that conscripts are being used for actual battle in the fight against the Ukrainian army or else he will have to withdraw those conscript units from the area and he will have to replace them with volunteer units that were supposed to be used in Ukraine.

So this question of conscription and conscript soldiers is also important to keep in mind because it means that Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region has the potential of touching something that is very sensitive in the Russian society. And that is the safety of the young men that are going through conscription. So it's this understanding that all Russian soldiers are not created equally. If Ukraine kills some poor guy that is from Siberia and he joined the army to earn some money then that's not something that's going to get people upset in the middle class neighborhoods in Moscow and St. Petersburg. But if the conscripts start dying then they will care because that might hit their own family, it can hit someone they know.

OK, that was a quick take on Ukraine's attack into the Kursk region. It's still early. We don't have all the information. So do keep that in mind that we have an incomplete picture. But I think this is definitely significant. It's much bigger than the small raids that we've seen before. And I think the purpose is to divert Russian resources away from the fighting that is taking place inside Ukraine and also to take an initiative that will prevent the situation where the Russian offensive in the Donbas reaches the point of culmination and then the Russians decide to take a break. And then finally, I think we need to understand this as a step in a process where the war is going to move more and more into Russian territory because that is the trajectory that we are on.

I will end it here. If you found the video helpful or informative, then please give it a like and also remember to subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon. Then you will get notifications when I upload new videos. And if you want to support the channel, you can subscribe to my newsletter. It's on www.logicofwar.com. Thank you very much for watching and I will see you again next time.