Russia now attacks cargo ships in the Black Sea

This week, Russia attacked a civilian cargo ship in the black sea with a long-range anti-ship missile. The MV Aya was transporting grain from the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk when it was hit by a Russian Kh-22 ballistic missile launched from a Tu-22M Backfire bomber.

The attack marks a dramatic escalation in the maritime war as it was the first missile attack on a cargo ship in open waters. Previously cargo ships have been hit in port, but they have not been targets of long-range anti-ship missiles at sea.

On the one hand, it is a testament to the poor performance of the Russian Black Sea fleet. What Russia would like to do is obviously to create a solid maritime blockade of Ukraine’s harbors, so the grain transports wouldn’t take place in the first place. But they have been totally incapable of enforcing such a blockade, and Ukraine has the necessary weapons to take out any Russian naval ship that approached their coastline. So, the options they have are basically to either shoot at the ships with missiles or attack them with torpedoes from submarines. It is a sign of weakness, not a display of strength. 

The war is escalating – also at sea

But, on the other hand, it is also a sign that the war is in a phase of escalation. We’ve seen that in other cases with Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk and Russia’s provocations with drones flying into NATO airspace. And now, apparently, civilian shipping in the Black Sea is also a target in the war. 

One of the problems with attacking civilian ships is that there are so many countries involved in the operation of cargo ships that it very quickly expands to a large group of countries that are stakeholders in the attack. There is a flag state, at least two port states, a ship owner, one or multiple cargo owners, at least one insurance company, and typically a multinational crew. In total, it would not be unusual for such a cargo ship to, one way or another, involve 10 to 20 different governments around the world. When Russia attacks civilian ships, it is possible that they could anger a large group of countries very quickly. 

One thing to note is that the attack on MV Aya is that it took place in international waters. It is frustrating to see the confusion in the media about the distinction between territorial waters and exclusive economic zones. This attack took place in the Romanian EEZ, but the EEZ is, by definition, international waters. It is simply incorrect to say that this attack took place on Romanian territory, which unfortunately has been suggested by parts of the media. See, for example, this formulation by the Kyiv Independent. 

It is not, in itself, illegal to wage war in another country's exclusive economic zone. It is illegal to wage war on civilian shipping, and that leads to another problem with this attack: If Russia and Ukraine go down this path of attacking civilian shipping, it’s possible that things could get out of hand very quickly. Ukraine might respond symmetrically by targeting a cargo ship heading for a Russian port, and this could start a tit-for-tat game where both sides, to an increasingly greater extent, go after each other’s shipping. 

Why did Russia do it?

Russia obviously understands these dynamics. That is why they have not taken the step of targeting cargo ships with long-range missiles sooner. When they do it now, it is something we should understand as a deliberate step. They do it because they find it necessary to put pressure on the global community to achieve something in relation to the war.

As I mentioned in my latest video, Russia is currently conducting a campaign to try to “bring the war home” to Ukraine’s supporters. They do that with a combination of different hybrid measures in Western Europe and with provocations such as airspace violations with Shahed drones. Now, they apparently also do it by targeting civilian shipping in the Black Sea. The goal is to show that the war has consequences on a global scale, and that if we support Ukraine to the extent that Russia gets into real trouble, it can become unpleasant for us as well.

It is, therefore, fair to interpret these attacks and provocations as a sign that the Russians feel under pressure. If everything was going well and they were confident that time was on their side in the war, it would not be necessary for them to take escalatory steps that could potentially backfire. 

It is possible that attacks on cargo ships could lead to negative consequences for Russia, because it is unpredictable how the different stakeholders will react. It is a gamble when they do it because it is impossible for Russia to have a complete overview of exactly which countries will be involved and how they will react if a specific ship is attacked. But they still do it, and that shows us something important about how they feel about the war. 

How will the world community react?

We will probably see little in terms of a direct response to this attack from the world community, because it is an inconvenient situation. For the world community, the situation had mostly stabilized in the Black Sea in terms of commercial shipping as a result of Ukraine’s very successful campaign against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

Theoretically, it’s possible to imagine that the world community could respond by establishing a regime of escorts to ensure the safety of merchant shipping in the Black Sea, but nobody wants to do that. The best thing for third countries will be if Ukraine manages to get this new threat under control as well, and other stakeholders don’t have to intervene.

How will Ukraine respond?

It will be interesting to see what Ukraine will do. It is possible that they can use this as an argument for why it is necessary to improve Ukraine’s capabilities in the air, for example, by providing more F-16s or more long-range air-to-air ammunition.

However, I also think there is a high likelihood that Ukraine will respond symmetrically and target a Russian cargo ship in retaliation. They could do that with the maritime drones that have been so successful in challenging the Black Sea Fleet. As I mentioned above, that would not be in accordance with international law, but it is difficult to see what other options Ukraine has. They are definitely not going to just stand by and watch while Russia destroys their ability to export grain and other goods from Ukrainian ports. 

If Ukraine shows determination to hurt the Russians symmetrically in the Black Sea, it is possible that it can deter Russia from further attacks on cargo ships from Ukraine. It will be interesting to follow what happens, now that the trend toward escalation has gained a maritime dimension with Russia’s decision to attack cargo ships with anti-ship missiles.