Attrition is beginning to bite

Hello,

I just released a video where I discuss the fact that we are now at a point in the war where attrition is really beginning to show its consequences. There is a plethora of news stories right now about how things are tough in Ukraine or how Russia's war economy is unsustainable. Unfortunately, these stories often give the wrong impression of how the war is going by not comparing the two sides. We have to remember that things are tough on both sides. That is the nature of a war of attrition. However, just because things are tough, it does not mean that we are getting close to the end of the war.

See the video here or read a transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

This is going to be a short video where I want to make a simple but an important point about the war in Ukraine. And it's something that I think most people already know or will find intuitive. But if you look at the news coverage, then there is a wave of stories right now where it's as if the media have forgotten about it. And that point is that it's a war of attrition and that we therefore have to be clear about what attrition means. So let's talk about it.

Right now there are many news stories about how things are difficult for one side or the other in the war. About Russia, it's stories about how the war economy is unsustainable and how they will run into all kinds of problems over the coming year or maybe into the next two years. And I also myself made a video about that a little while ago. And about Ukraine, it's more stories about how they are struggling on the front line and they're not getting the supplies they need. And there is a manpower shortage and the number of deserters is growing and how people in Ukraine are just tired of the war and experiencing war fatigue.

So there are sort of two slightly different angles to the question of the war being really hard. And some of it is due to the fact that Ukraine and Russia are just two very different countries in different positions and the war is affecting them differently. But I think a lot of it is also the result of Western journalists just having more access to Ukrainian society than to Russian society. So Western journalists can get more personal stories because they can travel to Ukraine, they can talk to real Ukrainians, they can go to the front line, they can talk to Ukrainian soldiers. So the stories they get will be more personal in that way because they can't do that on the Russian side. When they make stories about Russia, they will necessarily have to be based on more on what experts say and what sort of the stories they can get out of the economic figures.

But there are a lot of stories right now about how one side or the other is really struggling and whether the war is sustainable for that side in the long run. And as Vlad Vexler has emphasized in his videos on his channel, this discussion does not make a lot of sense when you consider these stories independently of each other. It's not very helpful to hear that things are hard or unsustainable on one side if you don't compare that with how things are going on the other side.

So the point I want to make here is that we have to remember that this is a war of attrition. Because I think that is a point that is a bit forgotten in all these news stories about how things are hard on one side or the other. And the reason there is a war of attrition is that neither side, neither Ukraine nor Russia, currently has the strength to defeat the other. So if one side could win right now, they would absolutely do that, but they can't. So we have this war of attrition where they try to wear down the other side over time, hoping that eventually they will get the relative strength that they need to actually win the war.

And I think the right way to interpret all these stories about how things are difficult on this side or on that side is that we're reaching a point where the war of attrition has been going on for a long time. And it's really beginning to bite. But the thing we need to keep in mind is that it's supposed to happen like that. It's not surprising that things get hard in the course of a war of attrition, because that's the point of attrition. It's supposed to be tough. It's supposed to suck.

And it's also not surprising that we hear these stories about both sides, both about Russia and Ukraine. Because if things were only tough on one side, then we wouldn't have a war of attrition anymore. Then we would be getting to a point where that side could win the war. But that's not the case. We still have a very equal fight between two countries that still both believe that they have a chance of winning. And that's why the war of attrition continues.

So I think it's important that when we hear these stories about how things are really tough in Ukraine and the Ukrainians are struggling or how the Russian war economy will run into all kinds of trouble in the coming years and they won't be able to sustain the war if this continues, then we don't put too much weight on these stories individually. Because all these stories show is that there is a war of attrition and also that this war of attrition is working as expected.

And also, it's important to note that just because things are starting to get tough, that also doesn't mean that the war is about to end. It means that we're so far into the war of attrition that things are tough, but it does not mean that things are necessarily tougher in one country than the other, or that we are getting close to the point where one side will get the upper hand.

So my recommendation would be that when we read these stories about how things are tough, that we then should mostly take them as a reminder that war is tough in general, and also that the worst is probably still ahead. As time progresses, this attrition will work in such a way that eventually we might see the contours of who's going to win the war, and that can then be an indication that the war is approaching the final stages. But for the time being, we should expect to see more and more stories about how things are getting worse in both Russia and in Ukraine, because that's a feature of the war. It's just how things work. And at this stage in the war, it does not mean that the country that the story is about is about to lose the war.

Okay, I will end it here. If you found the video helpful or informative, please give it a like. And also remember to subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon to get notifications when I upload new videos. If you want to support the channel, you can subscribe to my newsletter at www.logicofwar.com. Thank you very much for watching, and I will see you again next time.