Anders Puck Nielsen

Russia Featured

What the prisoner swap shows about negotiations with Putin

This newsletter is about the big prisoner swap the to place this week, where Russia released 16 prisoners, and a range of Western countries released eight Russian citizens. It is not going to be a detailed account of exactly what took place, or who the individual prisoners were. Rather I

Ukraine and Russia are still far from real negotiations

Hello everyone. I just published this video about why both Russia and Ukraine right now put a lot of effort into looking like they want negotiations, when in reality they aren't ready to make the necessary compromises. It is therefore somewhat a meta talk about what the talk

Featured

Why has Ukraine not destroyed the Crimean Bridge?

Tuesday morning, Ukraine attacked the ferry Slavyanin in the Russian port of Kavkaz. Kavkaz is a harbor on the Chushka Spit about 12 kilometers northeast of the Crimean Bridge on the Russian side of the Kerch Strait. Since Ukraine bombed the bridge (twice), Russia has attempted to build alternative logistical

Ukraine Featured

Ukraine gives up on crossing the Dnipro – for now at least

This week, news came out that the Ukrainians are leaving Krynky. This is a city on the left (Russian controlled) side of the Dnipro River, where they have been trying to establish a foothold since around November. It is a significant announcement, and to some extent it is the end

Time for a new Ukrainian offensive?

Hello, I have just released this video where I discuss the potential of a new Ukrainian offensive. It's possible that Russia's current offensive will culminate within the coming months, and usually that is a good time for the adversary to launch a counteroffensive. So what are

Friends of Ukraine Roundtable

I have been on Jake Broe's Friends of Ukraine Roundtable livestream together with Brandon Mitchell. Philip Ittner was also supposed to be there but unfortunately he lost his internet connection as he was calling in from Kyiv during a power outage. We talked about Russian war crimes, the

Ukraine Featured

An effective air defense for Ukraine

The terrible airstrikes on Ukrainian cities on Monday that also hit a pediatric hospital has again raised the question of how to improve the air defenses so such things can’t happen. Unfortunately, no air defense system is flawless, and it will never be possible to reduce the number of

How is the war going? — July 2024

In this video I give an overview of the frontline. There has been a long period of grinding fighting where the media attention has been relatively low, so it can be hard to keep track of events. As usual, you can see the video here or read a transcript below.

United States Featured

The problem with Donald Trump's peace plan for Ukraine

In 2019, President Trump suggested that the United States should buy Greenland from Denmark. When asked to explain the proposal, Donald Trump said that he saw it as “a large real estate deal”, and that it would make strategic sense for the United States to take over the ownership of

Kyiv Post interview

Hello all, I just want to let you know about this interview that I did with the Kyiv Post. It is an 11 minutes video interview where Jason Jay Smart and I discuss the big picture in the war. We start with the topic of war crimes that was also

Russia's view on the ICC and war crimes

I just published this video about the arrest warrants on Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov. It has not received as much attention as it deserves that Russia's former defense minister and the current chief of the general staff are wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges

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What are sunbathing tourists doing in a war zone?

This week, a Ukrainian long-range missile strike hit a beach in Sevastopol on Crimea. The beach was full of sunbathing tourists, and the attack was conducted with an ATACMS missile with a cluster munition warhead. Footage shows how most of the bomblets land in the water, but some also hit

Ukraine now uses drones for air-to-air combat

The static frontline in Ukraine is to a large extent a result of the drone technology which favors defensive operations. Both sides are able to defend themselves, but neither is able to make large breakthroughs. It is therefore interesting that we have lately seen examples of how the Ukrainians use

NATO Featured

European NATO countries (mostly) fulfilled their promises

NATO has just published the statistics of defense expenditure of the member countries between 2014 and 2024. NATO publishes such documents from time to time, but the numbers were particularly interesting this time. The reason for that is that 2024 marks a decade since the famous Wales Summit that took

Russia

Putin still wants total control over Ukraine

In this video I look at Putin's so-called peace plan. Most commentators have reacted to the tangible and frankly outrageous demands that Putin has come up with just to begin negotiations with Ukraine, but I think the most important story is that he also reiterated the original war

Russia Featured

Can Russia still recruit 30,000 new soldiers per month?

I’m traveling this week and I don’t have much spare time, so this newsletter will probably be fairly short. But I want to mention something that has recently received attention among some Russian military analysts, namely the Russian manpower situation. A number that has been mentioned a lot

Ukraine

Escalation management and Biden’s strategy for Ukraine

In this video I discuss Joe Biden's strategy for the war Ukraine. On the one hand, the American president is one of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine, and the United States has provided crucial military support to enable Ukraine to fight the war. On the other hand, the

Featured

The culture of lying in the Russian MoD

When Andrey Belousov replaced Sergey Shoigu as defense minister of Russia last month, there were many expectations attached to this appointment. Belousov was an outsider from the Defense Ministry, an economist by trade, and he has a reputation as an effective technocrat. The appointment of Belousov was seen by many

United States

US weapons will give Russia significant problems

President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with American weapons is extremely significant. There are still restrictions on what Ukraine can do, but it will give the Russians a lot of problems even with the current rules. And just as importantly, the taboo about making

Russia Featured

Why is Ukraine hitting Russia's nuclear warning systems?

Over the last week, Ukraine has struck two strategic early warning radar installations in Russia, and it has led to a lot of discussion about the purpose. These radars are an essential element in Russia’s nuclear defense system, and some people in the West have become worried that this

Ceasefire talks and military aid to Ukraine

Once again there is a story in the media that, secretly, Putin is ready for negotiations. There is little reason to believing that this is actually true. More likely, the "secret sources" that have been talking to journalists from Reuters are intentional leaks as part of an information

Russia Featured

A Kharkiv counteroffensive 2.0?

In this week’s video I talked about Russia’s new Kharkiv offensive, and it’s fair to say that I was skeptical about the brilliance of this idea. Some people reached out to me because they felt I was too dismissive of the threat of a Russian breakthrough over

Russia

Russia's Kharkiv offensive – what is the plan?

Russia has launched an offensive into the Kharkiv region, and it is the first time in a long time that there is a significantly new vector of attack on the frontline. But at the same time, it is unclear what Russia is trying to achieve. Much of the media has

Russia Featured

More about regime security than preparing for a long war

Putin has appointed a new defense minister and made a reshuffle in the top of some of the most important agencies responsible for the war in Ukraine. Andrey Belousov has replaced longtime defense minister Sergey Shoigu, who in turn has replaced Nikolai Patrushev as secretary of the Security Council. Most

Russia

The argument for why Russia won't use nukes

Lately, there has been a resurgence in the nuclear threats from Russia after a period of more calm rhetoric. In this video I explain why it is unlikely that Russia will actually use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Too many people think of nukes as a kind of wonder weapon where