Peace talks will take a long time
Hello,
There is a lot of discussion about peace talks after Trump's inauguration, but unfortunately there is little room for optimism. The military conditions are simply not present for a deal at this point. It is therefore important to remember that peace negotiations can take a very long time. Unfortunately, some countries might use the process of peace negotiations as an excuse for reducing or delaying military support for Ukraine.
Watch the video here or read the transcript below.
Best,
Anders
Transcript:
There is a lot of talk about possible upcoming peace negotiations in Ukraine. The expectation is that Donald Trump is going to push the Ukrainians and the Russians to talk and that this will lead to some kind of deal. And on the one hand, it's good that people are now sharing ideas about what a peace deal could mean, but because this is a necessary step to actually achieve anything, but at the same time, I think there is also a risk that people now start assuming that a peace deal is closer than it actually is, and that assumption can be dangerous. So, let's talk about it.
The argument in this video is quite simple. Just because there is talk about peace negotiations or even if peace negotiations begin, that doesn't mean that there is a peace deal. Negotiations can take a very long time, so it's important to keep focusing on fighting the war while these negotiations are taking place. But unfortunately, I think that right now we are already seeing some signs that people are beginning to assume that peace is around the corner. And this will almost inevitably lead some politicians to begin thinking that perhaps the Western countries can relax their support for Ukraine. Because after all, what's the need to think far ahead if the war is going to end very soon?
This is actually a classic problem in wars, especially when you have an international coalition that is supporting one side. Last year, I published a chapter in this book about naval warfare during the Korean War. My chapter focused on the Danish contribution to the war, and that was a hospital ship. And it's actually a quite fascinating story. I also published a shorter version online, and I will leave a link to that in the video description if you're interested in reading it.
But there is an aspect of that story that is quite relevant to the discussion that is about what's happening now in Ukraine. Back then, there was a group of countries in the coalition supporting South Korea that weren't really all that keen on delivering much to the effort. They were trying to see how little they could get away with contributing without getting into problems with the other partners in the coalition. And Denmark was among those countries. The Danish politicians back then in the 1950s believed that it was good that there was a coalition to help South Korea. But they also believed that it wouldn't be fair for Denmark to contribute a whole lot because Denmark, well, we had our own problems that also needed attention and cost a lot of money.
So they were looking for the cheapest possible way to make a contribution that would satisfy the Americans. This was an important goal since the Americans were the ones that were providing the security guarantees for Denmark against the Soviet Union. And, well, that cheapest contribution turned out to be a hospital ship. They actually tried to get away with just sending an ambulance, but quite clearly that did not impress the Americans. So they had to increase the offer and it became a hospital ship.
The Korean War broke out in June of 1950, and when the decision was made to equip the hospital ship, the Danes were already debating whether it made sense to invest all this money into rebuilding a ship because the war might end any minute now. That was in October, so already in October of 1950 they were talking about this. They did go through with equipping this ship and the ship came to Korea and it spent almost two years there. But several times after that, the Danes came under pressure to deliver more. The Americans wanted Denmark to not only provide a hospital ship, but also to provide direct military assistance. But the Danes did not want to do that. So for example, in the summer of 1951, the Danes managed to put off the question whether to provide a military contribution by referring to the fact that peace negotiations had just begun in Korea. So they suggested waiting to see how the peace negotiations went before discussing whether Denmark should make a bigger contribution. And that way Denmark managed to kick the can so far down the road that they never got around to actually making a military contribution, despite the fact that the peace negotiations actually went on for two years. The ceasefire didn't come until 1953.
So the point with all this is that once peace negotiations begin in Ukraine, we should expect the discussion to come up in some Western countries about whether this means that we can now scale down the assistance. Some countries that aren't really all that enthusiastic about helping Ukraine will use this as an excuse to deliver less, to postpone the decisions. Today, Denmark is not in that group of countries. Denmark is among the strongest supporters of Ukraine's cause. But there are other countries that are kind of free riding and looking for an excuse to get off the hook.
So it's important to keep in mind that even though peace negotiations might begin soon, they can still take a very long time. And just because they start talking, that doesn't mean that the war is about to end. And that is absolutely what I think we should also expect to be the situation in Ukraine. When we look objectively at where the war stands and how Russia and Ukraine view things, there just isn't all that much to suggest that they will reach an agreement anytime soon. There will be negotiations because that's what Donald Trump wants, and both Russia and Ukraine want Donald Trump to have a favorable opinion of them. So they're gonna go along with it. But the conditions are just not right for any real optimism about a peace deal at this point.
So what are those conditions? Well, frankly speaking, the problem with peace negotiations is that neither side right now is close enough to losing the war. What needs to happen before we can reach a settlement is that one of the sides has to make concessions that they absolutely do not want to make. And this requires them to be under so much military pressure that they have no alternative. And right now, neither side is in that situation. Both Russia and Ukraine still think they're winning.
Putin is looking at the developments on the battlefield, and he sees that the Russian forces are moving forward, so he believes that Russia is winning. He thinks that if the war continues, then Russia's position will keep improving. I recently made a video about what the Russian plan for victory looks like and how they envision achieving their war aims through negotiations by, well, essentially persuading the Americans to give them some very favorable terms in a peace deal, and that will then in practice mean that they get the political control over Ukraine. So they do see negotiations as a part of the path to victory, but they're not in a hurry. As Putin sees it, time is on his side, and if the Americans and the Ukrainians are not ready to give Russia what they want now, then he can just wait and then he will win the war later. So the Russians are not willing to make substantial compromises at this point.
And the Ukrainians, they are basically looking at the Russian economy and they are seeing that it's a house of cards that's going to collapse at some point. So what they need to do is to keep the war going until that happens, and then the battlefield situation can change very rapidly because the Russians will be unable to sustain the fight. I also made a video about the Ukrainian plan for victory and how the most important thing is the question of security guarantees. If Ukraine can get strong security guarantees so that they can guarantee their independence from Russia, then they can enter a peace deal. But if they can't, then there is no room for compromise because they believe that time is on their side and that their position will improve if the war continues and we get closer to that point where the Russian war economy is going to break down.
Donald Trump's whole idea about pushing for peace negotiations at this point is based on an assumption that deep down, essentially, both Ukraine and Russia want the war to end and therefore there is a deal to be made. They can make a compromise. But the reality is that we have two sides on the battlefield who both believe that they're winning and they both believe that their position will improve if the war continues.
So my humble prediction is that it's quite unlikely that we will see any breakthroughs in the peace negotiations anytime soon. There are many ideas that are being floated right now about what a ceasefire might look like, but I still haven't heard anything that sounds even remotely realistic. So that's why I say that it's important to remember this lesson from the Korean War that peace negotiations can take a very long time. And honestly, I'm not sure it's smart to pressure the Ukrainians right now to begin negotiations because some countries in the Western coalition are going to use this as an excuse to reduce assistance to Ukraine. And if that happens, it could have significant consequences for their ability to continue with the war, while the negotiations might drag on for years.
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