Ukraine is less dependent on U.S. weapons than Trump thinks

Hello,

It is dramatic times, and the negotiations between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia have turned many things upside down about the war in Ukraine. Here are my thoughts about why Ukraine is less dependent on American weapons than many people – including the American president – believe. And why, for the first time in the last three years, am I now uncertain that it would be a good thing for Europe and Ukraine if the war ends soon.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

Hi, so the negotiations or pre-negotiations between the Americans and the Russians have started in Saudi Arabia. It's really quite something. I mean, just going through these times where these kinds of things happen, it's quite clear that this is history and it's dramatic, but it's very confusing at the same time. And I think everyone is just kind of bewildered. What is it actually that's going on? And, of course, the same goes for me.

Many people have made the reference that this is like a second Yalta conference. We have, again, like in the 1940s when Churchill and Roosevelt and Stalin met and they decided on the future of Europe, that this somehow is something akin to that. But, you know, it's just kind of strange all this talk about how its great powers that are now shaping the future, deciding the fate of Europe, and then the Europeans are all just waiting to hear what's going to happen. You know, when the Yalta conference happened, that was about "what are we going to do with Germany when the war is over"? We've beaten Hitler, right? So Germany was this country that was totally devastated. And that's just not what Europe is like today and it's not even what Ukraine is like today. And that's what I think people, both in the American government and also in the public in general, maybe don't appreciate, how dissimilar the situation is today and how strange it actually is that these two parties, Russia and the United States, would get together and make this kind of great power game and decide the fate of a continent that has a population size the same as, you know, the United States and Russia put together. And why is it that Russia would be this great power that you would make these kinds of deals with when you have a European Union that on all parameters, except for nuclear weapons, is much stronger than Russia? It's just kind of strange to observe.

And I think what's going to happen is that, you know, when there is a push, then that's going to create pushback. And that's probably what we're looking into. That the United States here, the Trump administration… I'm always confused about what to say? Do I say the United States? Because I know there are so many Americans who are looking at what's happening and just can't recognize their country or their values in this. And I feel so sorry for you guys. I mean, this is difficult for us Europeans to go through because it's the alliance that we have been used to. And, you know, we thought there were shared values and these things. But I think emotionally it must be even harder to actually live in the United States and see your government doing these things.

But I think what's happening to some extent, and I touched on this in my recent YouTube video, that there is a wrong impression about the relative strength in this, and that the Trump administration just assume that they are much more important than they really are. And that therefore they will be able to just dictate the terms both to Europe in general, but also to Ukraine. And what I thought I'd do here is to make the argument for why that is a mistake to assume that, and why I think we should expect that whatever they come up with together with the Russians will be rejected by the Ukrainians.

The first thing I would say is it's I think it's pretty clear that the Trump administration overestimate how big the American contribution is. We heard Pete Hegseth say in Brussels that the United States has contributed 300 billion dollars to the Ukrainian war effort. That's just not correct. The United States has maybe, depending on how we count, but maybe contributed about half of that. And you can say, well, these people are just lying because it doesn't matter much to them, but at some point you start buying your own propaganda. So these people start thinking that this is actually how much they have contributed. And it just isn't. So they overestimate how much they contributed themselves.

But I also think an important dynamic here is that when the war began, then the American support was crucial. Ukraine was totally dependent on that. But what has happened since then is that Ukrainian domestic production of military equipment has increased dramatically. So looking at it today, we are at a point where Ukraine is actually producing a lot of the equipment that they use. That's domestic production. I saw a number somewhere that about 40% of the weapons they use, that is today domestic production. Europe has also increased the production. So Europe is providing more today than Europe was able to do a couple of years ago. And there is room for more production, especially in Ukraine. If Europe can provide the money to invest in Ukraine's defense production, then there is a potential of increasing the output.

So on the one hand, we have Ukraine that over the course of the war has become more independent. They are able to supply themselves to an increasing level. But just as crucially, what we are seeing today is also a Russian army that is not the same Russian army that it was when the invasion began or just a year ago. At an earlier stage, the Russians just had more to push with. But this is a Russian army that is clearly marked by attrition. And what that means is that even if Ukraine is weaker, it's not guaranteed that the Russians will be able to push more.

And therefore, this output that Ukraine is having today from the defense production, I think it's likely to be able to be enough to just hold off the Russians where they are now and continuing to inflict massive casualties on the Russians. So those two things combined, the increased Ukrainian defense production and the fact that attrition has changed the Russian army, that means that today Ukraine is in a position where they are much less dependent on the Americans than they were before.

About a year ago, there was that long period where the American supplies were blocked in Congress because, well, the Republicans blocked it in Congress. So for about six months, the Americans didn't deliver anything to the Ukrainians. And after about three, four or five months, that really started being a huge problem for the Ukrainians. They lost Avdiivka, for example. So at that time, it's clear that it was critical. But now we have a Russian army that has about another year of offensive operations and attrition, and that just means that they don't have the same power as they did back then.

And then another thing I would say is that when that happened last year, then that came as a surprise to Ukraine. And it happened just after the big summer offensive of 2023. So it meant that it happened at a time when the Ukrainian stockpiles were low. This time, I think we should expect the Ukrainians to have thought about this possibility that when Donald Trump comes in, maybe there will be some supply problems. So what will happen, what has definitely happened this time, is that Ukraine has made sure that they have stockpiles of weapons so that in the short term, it's not a problem.

So I think Ukraine is able to continue the war effort for quite a while. And I think with the recent statements that Donald Trump has made where he's basically just repeating all Russian misinformation that there is out there, any Russian talking point, he's going to repeat that. Now he's talking about how Zelensky is illegitimate and doesn't have public support and all those things. So it's only becoming personal, you can say. I think he's basically pushing Zelensky into a corner where Zelensky more or less just has to reject whatever comes out of these meetings between the Americans and the Russians.

So I think unfortunately, we are in a place where this war is going to take quite a while longer. And it's going to be up to the Europeans to step up here and show these two great power players that don't push Europe around. We are not that weak that you can just decide over our heads what our future will be.

One thing I will say, this is getting really long, it's the longest video I've made like this so far. But one thing I also just want to include is the fact that I find myself thinking now for the first time in this entire war, that maybe it's not actually a good thing for at least the European countries and also for Ukraine that the war actually ends at this point. And that is quite dramatic for me to get that thought, both because this war is terrible, but also because throughout the whole war I have repeatedly argued that all these ideas that, "Well, maybe the Biden administration is just keeping this war running because it's draining resources from the Russians." I didn't take it seriously, really, because I did not see that. And from my point of view, the longer this war takes, the more dangerous it would be. The best way to ensure escalation was to make the war take a really long time. And well, maybe that is what we are seeing now.

But I think at this point the big risk really is that if Russia is allowed an operational pause in the fighting, then what's going to happen is that the Western countries are going to very quickly reduce the aid to Ukraine because, well, now the war is over, right? We don't need to send all those weapons to Ukraine. But the Russian war production will continue, and that will mean that after a couple of months, three, four, five, six months, Russia will be in a pretty good position to restart the fight. And they will do that from a point where I don't think that the Ukrainians and the Europeans would be able to hold it back.

So this is really strange, but I think Europe and Ukraine will be able to hold the line as it stands right now against the Russian army that exists right now, where they are really suffering after three years of intense and constant attrition. But if Russia is allowed a pause, then they might be able to restart the war and finish the job and achieve their original war aims because they wouldn't need that long a break just to get the upper hand again.

All right, that was really long, but it's also a very, very intense period in military affairs and international politics. So thanks for watching.