What will U.S. weapons stop mean for the peace process?

Hello,

Here are my thoughts about why Donald Trump has stopped all help for Ukraine, and how it has created a paradoxical situation where Europe has to double down to make sure that Trump doesn't achieve his goals.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

Hi, it's really nice weather here in Denmark. It's one of the first spring days, so it's a nice day for a walk. But aside from that, it's a little hard, I will say, when you follow international news and the war in Ukraine to find the positive elements.

What I want to talk about today is the fact that the Americans have stopped the weapons assistance and a couple of other things to Ukraine. They've more or less halted all American support for Ukraine, at least for the time being. There was this terrible meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the White House. I think it's a week ago, but it feels like much longer. But then after that, a couple of days after that, the news started coming out that now the Americans had stopped weapons deliveries to Ukraine. No more deliveries to Ukraine of American weapons coming in.

This was weapons that had actually been paid for already, as part of what Biden had sent. Trump has not actually sent new weapons at any point in all this. All he hasn't done so far is to stop the deliveries of the weapons that Biden had initiated. But he has done that now.

Then came the news that also intelligence sharing has stopped. This is really bad for Ukraine. It means they won't be able to strike as efficiently in deep strikes, but it also means that they won't get early warnings about airstrikes from Russian bombers when they take off and come in to deliver cruise missiles. Then usually the Ukrainians would get a bit of a warning so that they could have air defenses in place. That won't happen anymore. So we're going to be looking at Russian airstrikes becoming more efficient very quickly. This will have significant humanitarian consequences in Ukraine.

And then today it came out that also the Americans had, or the Trump administration had somehow managed to block civilian companies. In this case, the Maxar satellite company that produces high resolution satellite images on a commercial basis, this is also now blocked. So Maxar will not sell images to Ukraine anymore. And this is actually a quite drastic step that this is not just about the Americans no longer donating military equipment to Ukraine. It's also not just about the Americans not providing military help in the shape of intelligence sharing. But it's also about commercial businesses not being allowed to do business with Ukraine. This actually brings us into sanctions territory. This is, this is not just not donating stuff. This is actually a kind of sanction that we can say that the Trump administration now has on Ukraine.

And why are they doing this? What is the purpose? You know, I think some people will say that, well, it's because of the Zelensky meeting, and if Zelensky had worn a tie and he had been talking more nicely to Trump, then it wouldn't have happened. I think it's quite clear that what's going on here is that the Americans are trying to push the Ukrainians into place, into understanding that Ukraine needs to accept whatever terms the Trump administration tells them to accept in these peace negotiations.

So this is Trump trying to save the peace process by pushing Ukraine here, basically. It's about showing Zelensky that he doesn't have any cards, right? So, and that's why it has to be so drastic, why it's not enough to just stop the weapons deliveries while they have deliberations, but why they feel the urge to have this punitive approach where they also make it impossible for civilian companies to do business with Ukraine. And I think it's quite likely that the same will happen to Starlink. So Ukraine will also lose that, probably. I think we should expect that.

It's really strange to watch that "for as long as it takes", has now turned into this thing where essentially the United States now has sanctions on Ukraine to force them into capitulation. That's really, really strange to see. And I also think that it's important to understand that this is the purpose. The purpose here is not just to get Ukraine to, you know, or Zelensky… it's not a personal thing. It's not just about getting Zelensky to come back and apologizing. It is about politics. This is about a political disagreement that they are trying to settle this way.

The Ukrainians have one vision of victory. Trump has another vision of what a peace plan is going to look like. And this is about that dispute. That also means, the way I see it, that many people talk about, well, it's possible that if Zelensky really apologizes to Trump, maybe some of this could come back. It is possible that we could see some of the weapons deliveries back on track for a while if the Ukrainians start behaving, in Trump's eyes.

But beneath that, there is a political disagreement and that's not going to go away. And that means that what we're seeing now is going to eventually break out again, even if there is a period where the weapons assistance is back on track.

And ironically, what this means is that the European NATO countries are now more or less panicking because it has become clear that the United States is in no way a reliable security partner, and we cannot trust the United States to provide security guarantees for us as well. And that means that it has become a question of paramount importance that Ukraine does not lose this war for the Europeans.

So it's really strange that we now have the Americans basically weighing sanctions on Ukraine to push them into capitulation, while it has become even more important for the European countries to go in and make sure that that does not happen and to increase the military support and just make sure that Ukraine prevails. Because without the United States as a security provider in Europe, then the Ukrainian military is just absolutely crucial as a force to have on the Western side in a future European security environment.

So it's really strange what's going on here. It's actually difficult to figure out if Donald Trump is intentionally destructive in the things he does. Is he really trying to undermine American influence all over the place or does he just not understand what's going on? It's really hard to make sense of the things that are happening. But I think those people who say that we should now engage in some kind of appeasement of — I'm sorry about the geese that are making a lot of noise here. But it's strange to watch how some people say that we should now engage in sweet talking Donald Trump and those things. And then that will be fine and then we can persuade him into understanding the European perspective.

I think the right way to go about this for the European countries will be to stand firm and to demonstrate to the Americans that actually it's the Trump administration that doesn't have the cards to get what they want in this case. Because that is actually the only way forward I can see, where there is an ending to the war in a way that is suitable for both Ukraine and for Europe. That is that Donald Trump finally understands that he does not have the power to make this happen. To force Ukraine into this deal, and that if he wants influence on what's going on, then he has to get behind the plan that the Europeans and the Ukrainians are proposing. That has got to be the way forward.

But we might have to go into a period of, I don't know, maybe some months, who knows how long this will take. But eventually, I guess, Donald Trump will understand that it's not easy to just push Ukraine into capitulation. But until that happens I think there is going to be a period here of unfortunately great uncertainty and also increasing casualties in Ukraine, a deterioration of the humanitarian situation as a result of the lack of intelligence sharing and the lack of air defenses in the cities.

So those were my comments here. It's a developing situation. It's one of those, you know, every morning you wake up, you turn on your phone, it's like what on earth happened overnight? And well, we'll see where this ends. But yeah, these were some reflections.