Thoughts on Hegseth's utopian peace plan

Hello,

Today, new U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, made some comments about how the U.S. sees a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Here are my initial thoughts.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

The new Secretary of Defense of the United States, Pete Hegseth, just made some comments at his first appearance in the Ramstein Group, that is the group of countries that are supporting Ukraine. And what he outlined there was basically the new policy of the United States towards support of Ukraine. It was quite interesting because he made some pretty bold remarks about it. So apparently, it is the policy of the United States… It used to be the policy of the United States that they will support Ukraine for as long as it takes. Apparently now, it is more or less like just make it stop. We need the war to end now. That is the number one priority.

And how is this going to happen? Well, the war needs to end quickly, as soon as possible. That is a priority. It has to end in a way that will give a durable and sustainable peace so that it's clear that the war won't break out again just in a few years. Ukraine is going to have strong and robust security guarantees to make sure that that does not happen. But at the same time, Ukraine will not get NATO membership, and the United States will not participate in any peacekeeping forces. So it will have to be someone else who provides these security guarantees. It will be Europeans, and it will to be non-Europeans, but definitely not the United States.

Also, these peacekeepers will have to operate without any Article 5 guarantees or guarantees that the United States would engage in case of them getting into some kind of trouble with the Russians, if the Russians attack again, and they find themselves in the middle of a war zone. So apparently the Europeans will both have to pay for this, and they will have to go in there on the line with the Russians without any backup from the United States.

And finally, obviously, he said this and it got a lot of headlines, that Ukraine needs to understand that it will not be possible to get back to the 2014 borders where they kick out the Russians from all the occupied territories. So quite a few bold statements.

I think my thoughts about it… The first one is that these are utopian ideas. Getting a peace deal as soon as possible, just make the fighting stop, and then also get a durable peace that will ensure that Russia will not attack again. This will have to be some kind of long-term deal. How are you going to make those two go together? The same thing with the robust security guarantees, but the United States is not going to participate. It's full of these utopian ideas about what they would like to see happen, but nothing concrete about how that is supposed to play out.

So I think it basically just shows that the United States at the moment does not have a plan. They don't know what it is they want to do. They just want the fighting to stop.

My second thought is that, well, the Ukrainians are going to say no to this. So it's like they don't seem to understand that the Ukrainians actually have agency in this and that they can't just tell the Ukrainians what they want, and then the Ukrainians are going to do that. So it's not enough to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table. Both sides actually have to say yes to a peace plan or else the fighting doesn't stop.

This thing that Hegseth outlined is full of demands that Ukraine must meet, different concessions they must make, compromises. But what about the Russians? What are they supposed to give? We haven't heard anything about that. All the Russians have to do is to stop shooting at this point. And that's really not a whole lot.

What would make the Ukrainians say yes to that at this point? The Ukrainians don't trust the Russians, that they are not going to restart the war in a couple of years. If the fighting stops, if there is a ceasefire, then the Russians will be able to rebuild their fighting power quicker than the Ukrainians can because the Western support for Ukraine will probably wane out while the Russians will keep producing whatever they need so that they will be in a strong position in a couple of years to restart a war.

So I think it's really hard to see why the Ukrainians would agree to deal where apparently they are the only ones who have to make all the compromises and they don't get anything. And they definitely don't get any guarantees that are trustworthy, that Russia can't just restart the war.

I think we're going to come to a point where the Americans will have to realize that the influence that they can get will not be based on what they have provided in the past. The United States has definitely supported Ukraine a lot in the beginning of the war and they have been the biggest supplier of weapons to Ukraine. But that is not going to give them influence on what the Ukrainians will agree to or not in a peace deal. If they want influence on what's going to happen in the future, then what's going to give them that influence is the future commitment, the things that they're going to supply in the future. And if that is nothing, then why would they get any influence?

So I think this is a realization the Americans will have to come to. If their suggestion is that Europe will have to provide all the security guarantees, why would the Ukrainians be talking to the Americans and not the Europeans? So I don't know. It's just a utopian idea. Honestly it shows immaturity on behalf of the new Trump administration on this question. It shows they don't really understand the dynamics of what's going on and they don't fully comprehend what it takes to get influence. And also that, you know, how do you get a good negotiated deal? If you want the war to end in a way that creates sustainable, enduring peace, then don't go ahead and give one side, the Russians here, the impression that you're in a hurry and you're just going to accept whatever deal they say they want and that you're going to pressure Ukraine into just taking it. That's not going to create an enduring peace. So well, those were just a couple of thoughts on what I heard from Secretary Hegseth today.