Is Trump losing patience with Putin?

Hello,

In this video, I discuss the news stories about Donald Trump allegedly growing tired of the Russians' hesitation to agree to a ceasefire deal. On the one hand, we still haven't seen anything but words from Trump about being tough on Russia, and it seems clear that he doesn't want to do that. But on the other hand, he is also facing the problem of fading into irrelevance over the coming months if things continue the way they have been going.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

Over the past week there have been some news stories about how Donald Trump is apparently growing tired of the Russians, and how they keep on stalling a deal about a ceasefire, and how he might impose what he likes to call "secondary tariffs" but what might be more sanctions on Russia to push them into making a deal. And I think it's been interesting. On the one hand, this has clearly, in parts of the Western media, been exaggerated. There's been way too much optimism about, well, now Donald Trump is changing his approach. Now he's going to put pressure on the Russians.

The reality is that at the same time he's been saying this, he has done absolutely nothing. We have seen no concrete actions to actually put leverage on the Russians. And also, he has said pretty much the same things about Ukraine. He's very enthusiastic about a new minerals deel that they have drafted up that is actually extremely bad for Ukraine. It basically turns Ukraine into some kind of colony of the United States. So while we hear a bit of rhetoric about how he will push the Russians, we are seeing action on how he's actually pushing Ukraine. So on the one hand, I think that part of it has been exaggerated.

On the other hand, I will also say that I think it's a mistake to go too far in the opposite direction and say that Donald Trump could never put pressure on Russia about anything. And that this is just rhetoric and it will not materialize into anything.

The reason I'm saying that is that this is actually a true dilemma for Donald Trump and the American administration. We are approaching the point that I've been talking about in several of my previous YouTube videos about how the interesting thing about Donald Trump's Ukraine policy is not really what he said in the beginning that he would do, but what he's going to do when he finds out that that is not working.

We are approaching the point where it's becoming evident that what they're doing is not working. There is no deal. There is no reason to believe that there will be any deal in any meaningful time frame. The Russians keep stalling this. And as this is happening, the American administration is facing the problem that gradually they will be fading into irrelevance if nothing happens. If this proceeds like this, then in a couple of months, they will no longer have any meaningful leverage on either side in the war. And there would be no reason to have any negotiations for either Russia or Ukraine with the Americans in the first place.

There are two reasons for this. The first one is that, of course, you can't keep talking about something for months and months and months and months, and then nothing happens. Eventually, people stop listening. So if they keep on talking about how a deal is just around the corner and nothing happens, well, eventually people stop listening, right?

But the other problem is that the Americans are up against a kind of what we can call a relevance deadline, which is that what gives Donald Trump any kind of meaningful leverage on Ukraine and through that on Russia is the fact that the United States is providing weapons to Ukraine. The moment they don't provide any weapons, and they don't support Ukraine anymore, and there really is no reason for the Ukrainians to pay any attention to what the Americans are saying.

And the weapons assistance that is happening right now, the shipments that are being made to Ukraine, they are all from the old aid package that was approved by the Biden administration and the previous Congress. Eventually that will run out and that will probably happen within the coming months, that gradually there will be less and less stuff that the Trump administration can deliver from that old aid package.

I think the assumption from Trump from the beginning was that he would have a deal in place before this would happen, so he wouldn't need to get into the question of whether there should be a new Ukraine aid package. Because clearly, judging by the rhetoric, the way he's been talking about this, it's like he does not—it would be sort of strange. I think the MAGA group would think it would be strange if they go out and make a new aid package for Ukraine. So they're running up against this deadline where there is nothing more to deliver. And Trump might have to go and do that anyways, just in order to stay relevant, to remain somebody that Ukraine and Russia want to talk with.

So it will be interesting to see what that looks like. But I think we are approaching that point where the crucial decisions will have to be made in the United States. Are they going to cut off all the aid to Ukraine and say, "well, that was it. We're not going to deliver anymore"? Are they going to go the other direction and say, "we're actually going to make a new aid package. We're going to deliver more"? Or is there going to be some kind of third way where they will say that "we're going to deliver maybe some equipment that only we can deliver, like Patriot missiles, for example, ammunition for the HIMARS systems"? Or are they going to say that, "well, we can keep on delivering stuff, but we don't want to pay for it anymore. So the Europeans will have to pay for this equipment that is sent to Ukraine"?

Either way, somehow we are approaching the point where the Americans will have to make a decision, where they cannot just keep on talking about how a deal is around the corner when that is not the case.

So, on the one hand, yes, despite this talk about how Donald Trump is really angry with Putin and he's going to put more tariffs on whatever. And then, you know, when the big tariff package came out the other day, Russia wasn't even on there. We need to see action before we start believing that he will actually do anything to hurt Russia. But on the other hand, if he does nothing that will be against Russia's interests, then in a couple of months, he will be fading into irrelevance. And that is probably also not an acceptable outcome for the American administration.

So it will be interesting to see. I might expand on this in a YouTube video at some point. In that case it will probably be more eloquent. But these are just some thoughts I think it's good to have in mind when we have these discussions, that I think it would be also a mistake to categorically reject the idea that Donald Trump could actually at one point have to do something that would go against the interests of Putin. All right, thanks for watching!