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Logic of War

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A collection of 10 posts

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Will the war spread to Belarus?

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What the prisoner swap shows about negotiations with Putin

Putin still wants total control over Ukraine

In this video I look at Putin's so-called peace plan. Most commentators have reacted to the tangible and frankly outrageous demands that Putin has come up with just to begin negotiations with Ukraine, but I think the most important story is that he also reiterated the original war

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Can Russia still recruit 30,000 new soldiers per month?

I’m traveling this week and I don’t have much spare time, so this newsletter will probably be fairly short. But I want to mention something that has recently received attention among some Russian military analysts, namely the Russian manpower situation. A number that has been mentioned a lot

US weapons will give Russia significant problems

President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with American weapons is extremely significant. There are still restrictions on what Ukraine can do, but it will give the Russians a lot of problems even with the current rules. And just as importantly, the taboo about making

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Why is Ukraine hitting Russia's nuclear warning systems?

Over the last week, Ukraine has struck two strategic early warning radar installations in Russia, and it has led to a lot of discussion about the purpose. These radars are an essential element in Russia’s nuclear defense system, and some people in the West have become worried that this

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A Kharkiv counteroffensive 2.0?

In this week’s video I talked about Russia’s new Kharkiv offensive, and it’s fair to say that I was skeptical about the brilliance of this idea. Some people reached out to me because they felt I was too dismissive of the threat of a Russian breakthrough over

Russia's Kharkiv offensive – what is the plan?

Russia has launched an offensive into the Kharkiv region, and it is the first time in a long time that there is a significantly new vector of attack on the frontline. But at the same time, it is unclear what Russia is trying to achieve. Much of the media has

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More about regime security than preparing for a long war

Putin has appointed a new defense minister and made a reshuffle in the top of some of the most important agencies responsible for the war in Ukraine. Andrey Belousov has replaced longtime defense minister Sergey Shoigu, who in turn has replaced Nikolai Patrushev as secretary of the Security Council. Most

The argument for why Russia won't use nukes

Lately, there has been a resurgence in the nuclear threats from Russia after a period of more calm rhetoric. In this video I explain why it is unlikely that Russia will actually use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Too many people think of nukes as a kind of wonder weapon where