Russia

A collection of 35 posts

Belarus Featured

Will Belarus join the war?

Russia

Latvia is the most vulnerable of the Baltic States

Ukraine Featured

Ukraine launches record drone strike on Moscow

Russia Featured

Putin's Victory day parade without vehicles

Russia

When will Russians start protesting?

Putin's recent crackdown on internet freedom raises new questions about what it will take for Russians to start protesting against their government. In this video, I share some thoughts about when we might expect that to happen and discuss whether dissatisfaction with internet restrictions can lead to more

Russia Featured

Will higher oil prices save the Russian economy?

In this video, I discuss whether the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will save Russia's war economy. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. I am again experimenting with a new video player, so if you run into

Russia

Trump, Putin, and the war in Iran

In this video, I discuss what the war in Iran reveals about the relationship between Trump and Putin. Many people assume that Trump is a Russian agent who always acts in Russia's interests, but the reality is more complex. I also discuss how Biden providing US weapons to

Ukraine

What to expect in year five of Russia's invasion?

In this video, I discuss some things to expect in year five of the war. I'd love to hear your opinions about the format. I hired an editor for this video as an experiment, and it's a lot different from what I usually do. I have

Russia Featured

Why Putin didn't take Trump's deal back in the spring

Drones Featured

What should the response be to the drones over Poland?

United States

Putin is trapped by Trump's misunderstandings

In this video, I discuss the meetings in Alaska and Washington, D.C. about the peace process for Ukraine. I think many people have been too quick to declare the Alaska meeting a victory for Putin. It's interesting how Trump insists on claiming that Putin made concessions he

United States Featured

Did Putin really win in Alaska?

United States Featured

Putin sees Alaska meeting as a step toward victory

NATO Featured

Can Russia win a war against NATO?

Hello, This is my first post on Logic of War. I am looking forward to contributing. In this first post, I discuss whether Russia can win a war against NATO. It is not a detailed look at the capabilities, but rather a discussion about what one needs to consider, and

United States Featured

Istanbul talks give Trump an excuse to continue doing nothing

Ukraine Featured

A busy week with much more than a parade going on

United States Featured

What Putin thinks about a reset of US-Russia relations

Hello, In this video, I discuss what the Russians think about the prospect of the United States leaving negotiations about a ceasefire or peace in Ukraine, and why they might not be interested in too close a relationship with the Trump administration. Listening to the video, I realize that I

Ukraine

Russia needs a spring offensive

Hello, In this video, I discuss Russia's upcoming spring offensive that is likely to begin in the coming weeks. In fact, some Ukrainian sources say that it has already begun. I discuss why it makes sense for Russia to do this, but also how Putin is caught in

United States Featured

Is Trump losing patience with Putin?

Hello, In this video, I discuss the news stories about Donald Trump allegedly growing tired of the Russians' hesitation to agree to a ceasefire deal. On the one hand, we still haven't seen anything but words from Trump about being tough on Russia, and it seems clear

Ukraine

Peace talks will take a long time

Hello, There is a lot of discussion about peace talks after Trump's inauguration, but unfortunately there is little room for optimism. The military conditions are simply not present for a deal at this point. It is therefore important to remember that peace negotiations can take a very long

Russia

Russia's economic crisis

Hello, I have released this video about the economic crisis that is emerging in Russia. Putin's order of priorities is pretty clear: the war is more important than the economy. He just wants the technocrats to make the economy work so he can do what he wants. If

Ukraine

What is Russia's plan for victory?

Hello, In this video I discuss how Russia can achieve their war aims through peace negotiations. Many people in the West have a simplistic idea of what the war is about, and therefore they focus on the wrong issues in discussions about possible peace plans. This is a weakness that

Russia Featured

What Syria says about Russia as a great power

The collapse of the Assad government in Syria has been astonishing to witness. What seemed like a fairly stable regime just two weeks ago is now gone. This is what a military collapse looks like. That is worth keeping in mind next time some journalists say things like, "The

Ukraine Featured

What will ATACMS mean for Ukraine?

Yesterday marked the 1000th day of the war, and Ukraine commemorated the day by using ATACMS missiles in Russia for the first time. It appears that a weapons storage facility in the Bryansk Oblast has been hit. According to the Russians, the attack was a failure because all six missiles

Russia Featured

The Russian war economy is a bubble waiting to burst

While everyone is looking to the United States and guessing what the election of Donald Trump will mean for Ukraine's ability to sustain the war, something interesting is happening in Russia. What appears to be an organized campaign is targeting the head of Russia's central bank,