Why is Ukraine hitting Russia's nuclear warning systems?

Over the last week, Ukraine has struck two strategic early warning radar installations in Russia, and it has led to a lot of discussion about the purpose. These radars are an essential element in Russia’s nuclear defense system, and some people in the West have become worried that this could be a step toward nuclear escalation.

The Voronezh family of radars are extremely big installations, and they are so-called over-the-horizon radars. This means that they can see thousands of kilometers, and their primary purpose is to give early warning of an incoming nuclear attack. In nuclear strategy there is a tight relationship between offensive and defense of capabilities, so when Ukraine is targeting Russia’s early warning radars, they are tinkering with the nuclear balance.

The concern is that if Russia does not have these radars, then that increases the risk that Russia will initiate a nuclear first strike because they are vulnerable to an American surprise attack. Another concern is that according to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, an attack on these installations is actually something that would warrant a nuclear response from Russia. So technically speaking, according to Russia’s nuclear doctrine they should at least consider responding with nuclear weapons against Ukraine in this situation.

Russia is not going to use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, and Ukraine knows this. I explained the reasons for that in a recent video. That is perhaps one of the reasons why there has been silence from the Kremlin about these attacks so far. They don’t want to explain how Russia’s nuclear deterrent can be dismantled without it leading to significant consequences. But in practical terms, there is little that Putin can do about it.

American concerns

But the Ukrainian attacks have left many Western commentators confused. What does Ukraine gain from attacking nuclear early warning infrastructure, when this type of weapon has little relevance for the war that is going on in Ukraine? The first Voronezh radar that Ukraine struck was located close to Ukraine, and it was possible to make the argument that maybe it had secondary roles related to air surveillance over Crimea. But the second one was more than 1500 km from Ukraine, and it served no practical purpose for the war. So clearly Ukraine is targeting these radars because they want to weaken Russia’s nuclear defense systems.

This obviously causes concerns in Washington, because it pushes the nuclear balance of power between Russia and the United States. President Biden has been extremely concerned about the potential of nuclear escalation throughout the whole war, and this seems like a step that would make him uncomfortable.

Most people have speculated that Ukraine’s motives are either to just hit some very expensive Russian military equipment that they know that Russia will want to rebuild, or that it forces Russia to reallocate air defenses from Ukraine to protecting important infrastructure in Russia. Both of these explanations make sense, but I find it unlikely that Ukraine would be attacking these radars for these reasons alone. There are many other things that Ukraine could hit where they would achieve the same goals without upsetting the Americans. So here are two explanations that I think are more likely.

Pressuring the US about strikes on Russian territory

it is possible that Ukraine is attacking Russia’s nuclear facilities exactly because they know that it makes the Americans uncomfortable. There is an intense discussion going on right now about whether Ukraine should be allowed to use weapons that have been donated from Western countries to strike targets on Russian territory. As I wrote in a newsletter recently, Russia’s Kharkiv offensive has really pushed this issue to the top of the international agenda.

Many Western countries are in favor of lifting these limitations, but so far the Biden administration has not changed its policies. This is a problem for Ukraine, because the country they most want permission from is the United States. This would open up for large quantities of extremely powerful weapons that Ukraine could use on Russian targets that are vulnerable and unprepared for such a situation.

Striking Russia’s nuclear early warning radars sends a message to the Biden administration that if they want influence on what Ukraine strikes inside Russian territory, then they better provide some weapons for the task – and maybe some intelligence for target selection. Otherwise Ukraine is just going to hit whatever they want.

So I think can be seen as a mild way to put pressure on the Americans amidst the ongoing discussions about allowing Ukraine to strike on Russian territory with Western weapons.

Exposing Russia’s nuclear bluff

The Ukrainians are clearly not concerned about Russia using nuclear weapons in the war, and they find it frustrating that other countries are so sensitive to Putin’s nuclear blackmail. By clearly overstepping the boundaries in Russia’s nuclear doctrine without it leading to any particular retaliation, Ukraine is exposing Russia’s nuclear bluff. It makes it more difficult for Putin to use threats about nuclear escalation when everyone can see that even a direct attack on Russia’s nuclear capabilities does not lead to such a step.

Taking out the Voronezh radars degrades the Russian ability to fight a nuclear war. It will take a long time for Russia to repair the damages, and in the meantime Russia is vulnerable. In such a situation Russia is even less likely to escalate a conflict to the nuclear level, because their nuclear defense systems are degraded from the start.

This will make it harder for Putin to say with a straight face that Russia’s world-class strategic nuclear forces are ready for everything. Ukraine has demonstrated that even a slow propeller drone can fly 1500 km through Russian airspace and hit one of the most sensitive installations in the Russian nuclear command chain.