Ukraine's role in European security

In this video, I discuss Ukraine's role in European security and why Ukraine is an attractive alliance partner for European countries concerned about the potential loss of the United States as a security partner.

Watch the video here, or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

With all the turmoil about NATO's future, it's important we have a conversation about the role of Ukraine in European security. In many ways, Ukraine will be key if European NATO countries want to continue deterring Russia from aggression, especially if the United States withdraws from the alliance. So let's talk about it.

In discussions about the war in Ukraine and what European security will look like after the war, there's sometimes a tendency in the West to see Ukraine as a burden. Ukraine is described as someone who needs our assistance during the war, and then after the war they will need our security guarantees so they can stay safe and prevent another Russian attack. In that view, Ukraine is seen as someone who consumes resources from Western Europe rather than someone who gives something back. That perspective is problematic because it overlooks how important Ukraine actually is for European security, and it also gives a misleading impression of the military strength of the different countries in Europe. It suggests that Western Europe is stronger than Ukraine in military terms, and that's not true.

So what I want to do here is go through why Ukraine is so important for European security. I'll focus on two aspects: military strength and geography.

First, military strength. Many people have a misconception about why the Russians are struggling to make progress on the front line in eastern Ukraine. They think it's because Russia is weak, and therefore see the stalemate as evidence that Russia isn't as strong as sometimes described. That perception is wrong. The reason Russia is struggling to make progress is not that Russia is weak, but that Ukraine is very strong. Russia has the biggest army in Europe, but Ukraine has the second biggest. What’s happening in eastern Ukraine is a war between the two largest armies in Europe.

It's important that Western Europe doesn't fool itself into thinking our armies would perform better than the Ukrainians are doing, because that's not true. The Ukrainian army is much bigger than the German, French, or British armies. It's a huge army, and it's combat proven. They have expertise and doctrine for modern drone warfare at a level we simply do not. So, if the United States is withdrawing from European security and Europe is losing the strongest military power in NATO, it's almost self-evident that we need to look around our neighborhood to see what other great military powers we could potentially ally with. Ukraine is an obvious choice. When the threat is the largest army in Europe, we need the second largest army on our side. Ukraine is a huge military power, and that's exactly who we need to be allied with right now.

Second, geography. Ukraine is next to Russia and has a long land border with it, so being allied with Ukraine pushes the front line eastward, which is beneficial. But to fully understand why Ukraine's geography matters, we need to consider Belarus and the role it would play in a war over the Baltic states. When people talk about a potential war between NATO and Russia, the Baltic scenario often comes up—an attack on Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. If you look at the map, the land border between the Baltic states and Russia is not very long; the land border with Belarus is much longer. So a Russian attack on the Baltic states would almost inevitably have to go through Belarus. This includes fighting in the so-called Suwałki Gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad. That gap is often seen as the place where Russian forces would try to cut off the Baltic states from reinforcements by severing the land border between Poland and Lithuania. In an age of maritime drones, it might be very difficult to use maritime transport across the Baltic Sea, so the Suwałki Gap is extremely important for the Baltic states' defense.

From NATO's perspective, the last thing we want is for Russian and Belarusian forces to be allowed to concentrate on Belarus's western and northwestern borders. What we want is for them to have to spread out their forces because they'll be facing threats from many directions, so they'll have fewer forces available for an attack on the Baltic states and the Suwałki corridor.

This is where Ukraine comes in: Ukraine covers the entire southern border of Belarus. If you count Ukraine as part of the Western alliance, Belarus is almost surrounded by Western forces. The only safe border Belarus would have is the border to Russia in the east. If we want to pull Russian and Belarusian forces away from a front line between Belarus and the Baltic states, Ukraine has the near-perfect location to achieve that.

If you look at this through the eyes of a Russian military planner preparing an attack on the Baltic states, they might view NATO forces in the area as something they could handle, because NATO doesn't have much forward presence there and Russia could probably mobilize faster. However, the presence of Europe's second-largest army standing on Belarus's southern border, allied with the people you're trying to attack, would seriously complicate their planning and could be a deal breaker. So Ukraine is vital for European NATO states' ability to deter Russia from aggression and potentially win a war.

We need to elevate the discussion from how the coalition of the willing can provide security guarantees to Ukraine into more of a discussion about building a real mutual defense alliance with Ukraine. Ukraine is never going to be a NATO member because that requires unanimity and it's not there. So that's not going to happen. But we need to build something else that covers more or less the same. We can copy the same treaty, give it a different name, and call it the new European Defense Alliance. We need to discuss how Ukraine can support us, not just how we can support them. Security goes both ways. We might deploy forces to Ukraine as part of security guarantees so Russia won't attack again, but Ukraine could also deploy troops to, for example, the Baltic states. We could have a Ukrainian division in Lithuania.

The point is, for our security, we need to formalize this alliance with Ukraine. At a time when the Americans are becoming unreliable as a security guarantee, Ukraine is an absolutely necessary partner.

A third point in Ukraine's favor is determination. In addition to a huge army and important military geography, Ukrainians have extraordinary determination to fight Russia. You won't find anyone in the world with greater determination to stand up to Russian aggression, and that's important because it means Ukraine will be reliable. We can trust they'll be ready to fight if needed, and that political determination is not something we can take for granted with all the other NATO countries right now.

I'll end it here. If you found the video helpful or informative, give it a like. If you want access to bonus videos and want to support the channel, you can subscribe to my newsletter at www.logicofwar.com. Thank you very much for watching, and I will see you again next time.