Why Trump can't buy Greenland

Hello,

Donald Trump's interest in Greenland, Panama, and Greenland is deeply concerning. It is not sustainable that countries in NATO have ambitions about taking each other's territory. In this video I try to explain why Trump's proposal to buy Greenland from Denmark is so hopeless. That, of course, does not preclude that Trump can do other things like taking Greenland by force. But it is important to know the current context.

Watch the video here or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders


Transcript:

Donald Trump is coming into office and he apparently wants to expand the United States to include the territories of Canada, Panama, and Greenland. Donald Trump Jr. just visited the Greenlandic capital of Nuuk and Donald Trump Sr. mentioned that he wouldn't rule out the possibility of using economic and military coercion to gain ownership of the island. I thought I'd add a few comments about Greenland to explain the context from a Danish perspective. After all, it's a quite special experience to be on the receiving end of such messaging from an incoming American president. So let's talk about it.

The first thing to note is that Donald Trump's interest in Greenland is not related to concerns about military security. Greenland is very important for the security of the United States because it's located in a position where early warning radars can detect incoming Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles. So Greenland is very important for missile defense and nuclear deterrence. But the reality is that the United States already has all the access it could want to Greenlandic territory. They already have an early warning radar at Pituffik Space Base. That's the one that used to be called the Thule Air Base. And if the Americans want to expand their military presence in Greenland to build installations in other places or station more troops there, they can pretty much just ask the Danish and Greenlandic governments. They would probably be allowed to do so if they actually asked. So unless Donald Trump is envisioning a future where the United States is no longer allied with Denmark, then there's really no military need for him to gain ownership of Greenland.

So I think a more likely explanation is that Donald Trump has discovered that there are a lot of natural resources in Greenland and that he wants to exploit that. His interest in gaining ownership of Greenland is basically about getting the power to dictate the conditions for exploiting those natural resources and distributing the wealth from doing so.

And then I think there is perhaps also in this an element of what I guess we can call narcissistic vengeance because Donald Trump clearly felt offended in 2019 when he suggested for the first time that the United States could buy Greenland from Denmark and our prime minister very quickly dismissed the idea and called it absurd. And it was an absurd idea but Donald Trump didn't like the fact that she would use that kind of language. We still have the same prime minister and I think there might be an element of revenge in this.

But the reality is that it is an absurd idea and it is a hopeless project and there are two very important reasons for that. The first one is about how Denmark and Greenland are connected in a constitutional sense. If we go back in time, Denmark was a colonial power. Denmark was at the center and the Danes had control over other countries such as Norway, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland. At that time it was possible to sell a colony to another country. For example Denmark sold the islands of St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix to the United States in 1917.

But that's not how things work anymore. In the modern era the Kingdom of Denmark is best understood as a federation consisting of three different countries. There's Denmark, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland. The Faroe Islands and Greenland have extensive independence and they can make most of their decisions on their own. There are a few political areas that are still decided in Copenhagen. That's mostly those concerning national security. So it's still the Danish military that has the responsibility for the physical defense of Greenlandic territory and it's not possible for the Greenlanders to build their own independent military. But in most areas the Greenlanders have extensive independence and they can decide pretty much whatever they want. There are some areas where they have decided not to exercise that right to independence because they don't have the state bureaucracy to manage all that and they are happy in those areas to delegate those decisions to Copenhagen. But if they want to they can take responsibility for those areas as well and you know get more independence.

So this is what Donald Trump clearly does not understand. Denmark and Greenland are two separate countries that are connected constitutionally in something that in practice is close to being a federation. People in Denmark generally do not consider Greenland to be their country. Greenland is the country of the Greenlanders. So when Donald Trump assumes that he can buy Greenland from Denmark that is an absurd idea because how can you buy one country from another country, right? He might as well ask if he can buy Norway or Germany from us.

So the first problem with what Donald Trump is asking here is that Greenland isn't really Denmark's to sell. It's up to the Greenlanders to decide what kind of affiliations they want to have with other countries. And if the Greenlanders want to leave the kingdom of Denmark and become part of the United States then fine, Denmark would respect that decision but it's their decision.

And now we get to the second reason why Donald Trump's idea is kind of hopeless. There is a strong nationalistic sentiment in Greenland in these years. Many Greenlanders want complete independence from Denmark and there is a discussion about the possibility of a referendum on this issue in the coming years. And that might happen but the challenge is that Greenland has a very small population. There's only 57,000 people and they're spread over a huge territory and there are some issues about how sustainable it would be to run a country when you have such a small population.

For that reason some people in Greenland find it interesting that the United States suddenly has this interest in Greenland. They're curious to find out if the United States could maybe be a source of income if they leave Denmark and that could make it sustainable to run a country. But the dream is to have their own country. The nationalistic idea among the Greenlandic people is to break away from Denmark and to become an independent country. Almost no one in Greenland wants to become part of the United States. And indeed becoming a part of the United States would permanently destroy Greenland's hopes of achieving complete independence. Because I think it's quite clear that once you join the United States then you don't get to leave again.

So Donald Trump has probably noticed that there is some talk in Greenland about breaking away from Copenhagen and he hopes that he can use this to get what he wants in Greenland. But once he gets into serious discussions with the Greenlanders it will become obvious that they're not at all talking about the same thing. The Greenlanders want the United States to give them money in exchange for access to Greenlandic territory for defense purposes. But aside from that, they want to be an independent country that can make its own decisions. And such an arrangement is not at all going to give Donald Trump the ownership of Greenland which he can use to dictate the rules about exploiting natural resources.

So all in all, it is a hopeless project that Donald Trump is talking about. I think the chances of him persuading the Greenlanders to give up their dream of independence and becoming a part of the United States are close to zero. And the idea that he could buy Greenland from Denmark is simply impossible. He seems very convinced that this is what he wants to do and it will be interesting to see how far he's willing to take this and if he's really going to go through with a trade war against Denmark, for example, to put pressure on Copenhagen to give him something that they don't have.

This is all very bad news in the sense that this is absolutely not what the Western alliance needs right now, especially with a war going on in Ukraine and all the other uncertainty in the world. It's going to weaken Europe. It's going to weaken America if there's division and quarrels within NATO. And perhaps most importantly, this is sending a message to the world that the incoming president of the United States is supportive of imperialistic projects by great powers. It's really quite a message to be sending to China and Russia at this point.

So it will be interesting to see how serious Donald Trump really is about this or if it's just something that he's saying right now to steal the media attention before he's actually inaugurated as president.

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