Ukraine's problems with desertions and new brigades 🎥

In this members only video, I discuss the problem of desertions in Ukraine's 155th Mechanized Brigade and the broader question of whether Ukraine should prioritize building new brigades or complementing existing ones with the soldiers they mobilize.

Transcript:

Hi. People really seemed to like the walk and talk format and it's kind of nice weather again here in Denmark. So I thought I'd do it again. What I want to talk about is really the Ukrainian manpower situation and a story that's been released in the last week and has gotten a lot of attention. But first I want to say that it's hard not to talk about the Kursk offensive that's apparently going on right now. It appears that Ukraine is once again on the offensive in Kursk and has tried to change the direction of things there. And that's really interesting. It's going to be interesting to see how big this is and what the results are. It's way too early to make any conclusions at this point. But the fact that the Ukrainians seem to be a little mysterious about it and they keep quite a bit of radio silence about what's going on. It appears that it sort of indicates that this is probably a big thing. That's also what we saw back in August. So definitely something to watch this thing what's going on in Kursk right now.

But what I wanted to talk about was the story that came out maybe about a week ago about a Ukrainian brigade, the 155th Brigade. I think it was called "Anne of Kyiv" which has really had some very big problems in terms of leadership and in terms of soldiers basically deserting, going AWOL, absent without leave. The number was that since, I think since March, something like 1,700 soldiers from this brigade have gone AWOL. And 1,700, like a brigade would usually be about 3,000 soldiers, maybe in Ukraine I suspect a little less. So having 1,700 people go AWOL, that's a very, very big number. And of course it's not 1,700 people at the same time. It's 1,700 over the course of a year, but still it's a very big number. And this unit even went to France to get Western training and they were equipped with the biggest Leopard tanks. And there've also been all kinds of other problems about they didn't get the drones they needed to really be prepared for battle and all kinds of things there.

But what I wanted to talk about a bit was the criticism that this story has created in Ukraine. And it's important to be honest about these things that these kinds of problems do exist in Ukraine. Some people, especially in the West, like to think that everything is great in Ukraine and that it's only the Russians that have leadership problems in the military. But it's not. I mean, these are problems the Ukrainians also have and they have to deal with this. And there are all kinds of small things you have to work out. Like how do you get the mobilized soldiers you need? How do you do the training? How do you prepare the units for this? Where do you get the officers from?

And one of the very big ongoing discussions in Ukraine related to manpower has been what to do with the new soldiers that come in. Should these soldiers be put into new brigades? So you basically form new units, new brigades that you can then put into battle. Or should you use the soldiers you mobilize to replace losses in the existing brigades that are fighting on the front line? And Zelensky, the general staff, have so far prioritized to establish new brigades. And this one, the 155th, was one of those new brigades. Zelensky has been talking about this time that they are establishing some 14 new brigades. And a lot of people in Ukraine have criticized this approach. Why on earth are we building new brigades when the brigades we have are undermanned? They have significant shortages of personnel on the front line. And these units are losing ground. And we are all the time just plugging holes because these brigades on the front line don't have the manpower they need.

So the argument there is that it's a bad idea to build these new brigades. And especially because Ukraine also has a shortage of skilled staff officers. So where will you find the leadership for 14 new brigades? That would be like thousands of skilled staff officers you really need for that. Somewhere between a thousand and two thousand skilled officers you would need for that. Where do you find those? So these are some of the arguments against that.

And some of the very vocal critics of this have really created a kind of campaign, I would say, on social media about how stupid this decision is and that it really needs to change. And it's possible that it needs to change. But I think something that is sometimes missing from this discussion in social media is the question of why is it that Zelensky and Syrsky and the leadership in Ukraine are prioritizing the formation of new units. What is it they're trying to do?

And that's just important to also keep in mind here. It's not that these people are stupid. It's that they have something else they're trying to do first. They want to do something else with this personnel. And the problem, basic problem, they are trying to solve is that if they don't establish new units, then it will be very difficult to get to the point where they can rotate entire units out of the front line.

Usually in a battle, a brigade can be deployed so long and then you need to take them out. They need rest. They need recovery. They need to rebuild strength before they can be used again. And to do that, you need other units that you can set in there. So, if you use all the new personnel you mobilize to fill the holes in the existing brigades on the front line, then you will never get to the point where you have other brigades that can be rotated in. So, this unit that has suffered from losses, that they can be rotated out.

So, it's really a trade-off here. On the one hand, you have the Ukrainian leadership trying to prioritize forming new brigades so that you get to a point where you can create a system where units are rotated into battle and out again after a period of time. And on the other hand, you have a huge problem actually building these units. And you have the problem that you also, what many people are criticizing, is that when you take all the new soldiers and you put them into a brigade of their own, then they don't learn from the experienced soldiers on the front line. So, you have this problem that you have all these novices basically being thrown into battle at some point and then they take very big losses. So, it really is difficult nut to crack and the Ukrainians are struggling there to find the good solution to this. And I think this is definitely something they're working on. I just think that in the debate that I've seen online, there has been missing this point of what is it actually that Zelensky and the general staff currently are trying to do by forming these new brigades.

Another thing I think is also sometimes missing from this is the fact that the Russians are struggling with similar issues. So, that's also just important to keep in mind that whenever there are discussions about how there are deserters in the Ukrainian army and people, you know, it's difficult to find the people you want to mobilize. It's difficult to recruit and train, etc. All these problems, the Russians have them also, right? They also have people that go AWOL. So, that's also important to keep in mind.

And then finally, the last thing I will say and here is a connection actually to the ongoing things in Kursk. It's also just important to be aware that there is a bit about strategic priorities in this as well. So, for the Ukrainian leadership, the most important thing is actually not to hold the line in Donetsk Oblast, right? So, that's in the east of Ukraine. That's an important priority. They want to sort of keep it as best as they can. But the most important thing is actually what's going on in Kursk. And they want to have soldiers to do that. They have prioritized having soldiers so they could launch a new offensive, put pressure on the Russians leading into the inauguration of Donald Trump. Because they see Kursk as strategically more important than whether they keep this town or that small city or what forest they keep in eastern Ukraine. They see Kursk as more important when it comes to putting political pressure on basically both the Russians and the Americans in all this.

So, when people point to the bad manpower situation in eastern Ukraine, that is true. There is a shortage of manpower there. But it's also just important to be aware that strategically Ukraine has actually prioritized to use their manpower for something else. Okay, that is what I had for this time. See you next time.