Ukraine's drone war is isolating Crimea

In this video, I discuss Ukraine's success with mid-range drone strikes, and how it challenges Russia's logistics especially on the southern part of the frontline. If this continues, it could turn into a new hotspot in the war.

Watch the video here or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

It's been a long time since I've made videos about the tactical situation on the front line. The reason is that it's been very static, so there hasn't been all that much to talk about. But there are some significant things happening right now that indicate that things might be changing. So in this video, I want to discuss the situation on the southern front line and what's happening with what the Ukrainians call mid-range strikes. That's where they target Russian logistics and command centers up to maybe about 100 to 150 kilometers from the front line. They are having quite a lot of success with this, and it's something that can potentially have very big consequences. So let's talk about it.

Ukraine has been having a lot of success with drone warfare, and it's a large part of the reason why we are now seeing things shifting on the front line. I also mentioned Ukraine's success with mid-range strikes in my recent video about what options Putin has now that things are not going Russia's way in the war anymore. But I thought it might be useful to unpack this concept a little more and explain the different types of drone warfare that we can observe.

Conceptually, it makes sense to distinguish between three different types of drone warfare that Ukraine is waging. On the front line itself and until a depth of maybe about 20 kilometers from the front line, they have what they call the drone wall. This is where you find the small first-person view drones that hunt individual Russian soldiers and vehicles.

It's called a drone wall because the area is so saturated with drones that it's almost impossible to go anywhere without being discovered. So we can see the drone wall as a barrier that's designed to keep the Russians from advancing, but it also serves the purpose of maximizing the number of Russian casualties. Most Russian soldiers that lose their lives do so in the meeting with the drone wall on the front line.

Another element of Ukraine's drone war that has received a lot of attention is the deep strikes on Russian territory. Ukraine has developed very long-range drones and missiles that can reach targets up to about 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine. Especially over the last six months, we've really seen them expand these strikes and hit the Russians hard. They have especially targeted Russian oil production facilities and different factories that produce various things related to the war.

The Ukrainians call this long-range sanctions, which is obviously a sarcastic term. I would probably call them strategic airstrikes. But the purpose is to defeat the Russian war economy and to make it impossible for the Russians to produce enough equipment to sustain the war.

So these are the two types of drone warfare that I think most people in the West would think about when they hear about Ukrainian drones: the drone wall on the front line itself and the long-range strikes deep into Russia. But there is a third category, which is something that the Ukrainians have been having a lot of focus on for a long time, and that's what they call mid-range strikes.

The categories of short range, medium range, and long range can be confusing because they can mean many different things depending on the context. But what the Ukrainians are talking about when they say mid-range strikes are strikes that are beyond the area where small FPV drones from the drone wall can hit. So mid-range strikes are in the area from maybe about 20 kilometers to the front line and then up to 100, maybe 150, or even 200 kilometers. But that range there between 20 and out to 150-ish kilometers.

If I were to put a label on what Ukraine is doing here, I would probably not use the term mid-range strikes. I think I would lean towards talking about tactical strikes. But the purpose of these attacks is to target Russian logistics and command centers.

The Ukrainians are now talking about wanting to do what they call a logistics lockdown for the Russians. And that pretty much also explains the concept. The goal is to make it impossible for the Russians to bring supplies to the frontline.

So conceptually, we can say that the difference between Ukraine's strategic deep strikes and these tactical mid-range strikes is that they have different purposes. The strategic strikes aim at making it impossible for Russia to produce enough equipment and supplies for the war. The tactical strikes aim to prevent Russia from bringing those supplies that have already been built to the soldiers that need them on the front line.

Ukraine now has the capability to be successful in all these three different areas: the drone wall, the mid-range strikes, and the deep strikes. Earlier in the war, there was a lot of discussion about whether the West should provide the weapons that were needed for this type of mid-range campaign that Ukraine is now waging. That's something like the American ATACMS missiles, for example. Ukraine asked for them for a long time and they were never really given them in substantial quantities. But now Ukraine has, to a large extent, managed to build alternatives that can solve the task at least well enough to have a significant impact.

So because of these mid-range strikes, Russian units are experiencing supply constraints in many areas. We're generally seeing many examples of shortages in the occupied territories, especially things like gasoline and diesel. But the area where the impact is the largest is without question the southern area along the so-called land corridor to Crimea and on Crimea itself.

The reason for that is that the number of supply lines is limited. The Russian soldiers on the front line in the southern area can basically receive supplies from three different directions. One way is from Crimea, another is along the coastline from the Russian mainland, and the third one is with ships coming across the Sea of Azov and then distributing the cargo with trucks.

Earlier in the war, the troops could receive supplies from Crimea, but Ukraine has efficiently targeted both the bridge across the Kerch Strait and the ferries that service that connection. The bridge is still there, but after the last time Ukraine attacked it, the bridge has been closed for heavy trucks and for trains, so only light vehicles can cross it. That means, of course, the bridge is pretty much useless as a supply route. And then Ukraine has also hit the ferries that were put into service instead of the bridge. So they have been mostly offline.

So that means that today Crimea is not a provider of supplies for the soldiers fighting on the front line in Ukraine. On the contrary, Crimea needs to be supplied via the land corridor close to the front line. And that's been working quite well for Russia until now. But with Ukraine's success in the mid-range strikes, suddenly this supply line is becoming questionable.

When it comes to maritime transportation, there are essentially two ports that the Russians can use: the port in Mariupol and the port in Berdiansk. But Ukraine has begun targeting ships quite heavily. So we see ships being hit while in port and also at sea by different drones. So maritime transportation to the area is also being limited.

Along the roads, Ukraine has started to deploy massive numbers of drones to hunt down military vehicles and supply trucks, especially along the M14 highway that runs from Mariupol to Mykolaiv. This highway has been called the Highway of Death by some Russian commentators because there are just so many destroyed trucks along the road. Russia has also been trying to build a railroad connection in this area, but Ukraine has been targeting that as well.

The consequence has been that there is now a significant fuel shortage in Crimea. And the discussion, of course, goes about how far Ukraine can take this. I've seen some people speculating about whether Ukraine is now preparing for an offensive on Crimea if the situation gets bad enough. And while I wouldn't rule it out entirely that Ukraine could try to do something like that at some point, depending on how the war goes, I think it's not something that's an obvious next step.

But I will point out that I think it's important to be aware that this area here, the Kherson region and the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region, are without question the most vulnerable of the Russian-occupied areas. The reason is that the soldiers here depend entirely on supply lines that now suddenly begin to look fragile.

Over the last couple of months, Russian progress on the front line has pretty much stalled. Ukraine has also started to take back some territory in some areas, and this is one of them. I think if this trend continues and things continue to tip in Ukraine's favor, then this is an area where we might see things beginning to happen first.

It's worth remembering that back in 2023, when Ukraine had their attempt at a big counteroffensive, this was the area where the biggest results were supposed to be achieved. What Ukraine was aiming for at that time was exactly to cut the land corridor. So the occupied areas would be split into two, and this would have cut off the supply lines to the western part of the area and to the Crimean Peninsula.

It's interesting that Ukraine now seems to be achieving some of those same effects with drones. But the point back then, of course, in cutting the occupied area into two was to create conditions for further offensives in the western part of that occupied territory that now would have been isolated and cut off from supplies. It will be interesting to follow whether the mid-range strikes can over time create the conditions that would allow Ukraine to try something similar again and maybe attempt to take back some territory in these areas.

So while there is a lot of focus on Crimea and discussions about whether Ukraine can take it back, I think the more immediate question is whether we're going to see Ukraine try something in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukraine would not need to advance all that far from the current frontline before the Russian forces would be facing a dilemma. Are they going to defend the city of Melitopol, or are they going to focus on defending the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant? And in that case, I think the Russians would probably prioritize Melitopol.

But that means that if the mid-range strikes continue to weaken Russian defenses on the frontline, then it's not perhaps totally outrageous to start thinking about whether Ukraine might eventually get the chance to take back the nuclear power plant.

So there are some interesting perspectives in what's going on with the southern front right now. Of course, the Russians are not going to just let the Ukrainians do that. They're going to try to find different countermeasures and stabilize the situation, but this area is well worth watching and it could become one of the hotspots in the period to come.

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