Trump, Putin, and the war in Iran

In this video, I discuss what the war in Iran reveals about the relationship between Trump and Putin. Many people assume that Trump is a Russian agent who always acts in Russia's interests, but the reality is more complex. I also discuss how Biden providing US weapons to Ukraine has made it possible for Trump to wage a war on Iran without being too concerned about Russia's position.

Watch the video here, or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

The American War in Iran raises some important questions about the relationship between the United States and Russia. Allegedly, the Russians are providing targeting data to the Iranians so that they can more efficiently hit American targets. And overall, I think it's fair to say that the Russians are not happy about the fact that the Americans are now waging another regime-change war in the Middle East. This seriously challenges this assumption that many people have that Donald Trump is secretly some kind of Russian agent. What I want to do in this video is to use this war as a way to examine the relationship between Russia and the United States and to discuss how I think we should better understand it. So let's talk about it.

The war in Iran does not seem to be particularly well thought out. From a strategic point of view, it's very unclear what the Trump administration is trying to achieve, and it also appears to be dragging on and taking much longer than they intended it to do. So there's a lot of uncertainty about where that war will go, what will happen and whether the Trump administration is now heading towards getting their own version of a three-day war that turns into a year-long conflict.

But what I want to do in this video is to focus on another aspect of the war where I don't think there is all that much uncertainty. I think this war demonstrates something that is important about the relationship between the Trump administration and the Putin regime in Russia.

To begin with the obvious, it shows that Trump is not a Russian agent. There is this story on social media that Trump was recruited by the Russians a long time ago, and his code name is Agent Krasnov, and he was installed into the White House as a Russian agent. And that's not true. The Russians are really struggling with Trump because they don't know how to deal with him. He's so unpredictable. It's a huge challenge to them, just as it is to us.

In some ways, they can find common ground with Trump. For example, they have very similar views on what a good end state would be regarding the war in Ukraine. They also have ways of influencing him that they did not have with former U.S. presidents. This comes down to how Trump personally views Putin. He has this belief that he and Putin have some kind of special relationship, and that's something that the Russians can use in negotiations.

But there are also many areas where the United States under Trump has acted in ways that are directly contrary to Russian interests. Russia did not want this war in Iran. They did not want the Americans to kill the Ayatollah. They also did not want Trump to take out Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.

But aside from those spectacular examples, there are also many lower profile foreign policy steps that the Trump administration has taken that are extremely frustrating from Moscow's point of view. The Americans have tried to expand their influence in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, for example. We had J.D. Vance visiting Armenia and Azerbaijan recently. These are things that annoy the bejesus out of the Putin regime in Moscow.

So we need to understand that when Trump and Putin find common ground on questions such as Ukraine, it's not because Trump is a Russian agent. And it's not because Trump always agrees with the Russians. It's just that in this particular case, he actually shares the view that the Russians have on how this war should end. So, it says a lot about how Trump feels about Europe and the Europeans and how he sees European liberal democracies and how he sees that as a threat that should be undermined. He shares that view with Putin.

And it says something about how he believes that they can make business deals with the Russians and how that they can make more money with the Russians than they can with the Ukrainians. But it does not show that the United States and Russia are generally aligned on all issues because that's clearly not the case.

Another fairly obvious point is that what's happening in Iran right now is largely an expression of how Russia has lost power on the world stage as a result of the war in Ukraine. It highlights Russian weakness.

If this had happened just five years ago, the United States would have had to consider Russia's position much more carefully before starting a war in Iran. They would have been concerned about how Russia would react, and what role are they going to play. What if there is an escalation in the Middle East? What's Russia going to do? Can they escalate in other places around the world?

Five years ago, the Russians would also almost certainly have been present on the ground in Iran. Not with official Russian forces, but with private military companies such as the Wagner Group. They would have been present there with sophisticated systems. They could assist with air defense, but they would also be there with forces that could help the Iranian security forces and make sure to keep the population under control and prevent that regime change would happen. We would also see the Russian Navy operating in the Strait of Hormuz and in the Persian Gulf. They would have been there to complicate the maritime operations by the US Navy.

Russia was also back then in a much stronger economic position. They had a very strong position in energy exports, and the Trump administration would have had to consider the Russian stance because Russia could influence financial stability in Europe and the United States.

But today, Russia has lost a lot of that power, and that's the reason why the United States and Israel could start a war with Iran without thinking too much about the Russian position on this. And it's also why the United States can then suddenly start to gain influence in other areas, such as Central Asia and the South Caucasus, where Russia has traditionally been very strong, but now they are weak.

The third point is that the reason Russia is weak today is because of the war in Ukraine. Four years of war of attrition have degraded Russia's ability to act as a great power. To some extent, this is also a kind of obvious point. You don't have to be a genius to understand that it's the war in Ukraine that has created the situation. It has weakened Russia and reduced the resources that they have available for other purposes.

But when you follow the messaging from Donald Trump and the White House, it doesn't seem all that obvious to them. It's like they don't see the connection. Donald Trump and Karoline Leavitt have argued that the United States has a problem in the war with Iran because there is a shortage of certain munitions, and that the reason for that is that Joe Biden provided these weapons to Ukraine.

So their argument is that the United States would be in a stronger position against Iran if Ukraine had not received these weapons. That argument is not particularly wise because it's precisely due to Joe Biden providing these weapons to Ukraine that Russian influence in the Middle East is weaker today and why the United States has been able to attack Iran without being too worried about the Russian reaction. So, from the perspective of great power competition, it was a good idea to provide those weapons to Ukraine. It was a smart move because it opened opportunities for the United States in other places, and that's what the Trump administration is capitalizing on now.

That leads to the last question that I want to cover in this video, which is: Why is it that the Russians are now supporting the Iranians with targeting data on American military assets? There are actually two dimensions to this question. The first one is: Why are they only providing targeting data and not more substantial help? And the reason for that is what I covered before, that Russia has been weakened by the war in Ukraine. But the other aspect is, why are the Russians doing this when on other issues, such as the peace talks in Ukraine, they seem to have more common ground with the American administration?

There are several layers to the answer to this question. The first is that the Russians want to do the same to the Americans as the Biden administration did to them. They would also like to see the Americans bogged down in a difficult war that consumes a lot of resources and weakens America in the long run.

Another reason is that Putin genuinely despises this American habit of regime change in foreign countries. This is the second time that Donald Trump has done this in just a few months, and he absolutely wants Donald Trump to stop doing this. And the way to achieve that is to ensure that it turns into a really bad experience, so Donald Trump does not want to do it anymore. So in that sense, it's about Putin trying to do what he can to avoid regime change in other places, such as in Cuba, for example, where Donald Trump is also talking about regime change.

And finally, it's about the oil price. The Russian economy is really bad right now, and the only thing that can really give them some relief is if the oil price goes up. So now that the Americans have started a war in Iran, Putin would obviously like the Iranians to close the Strait of Hormuz so this can trigger a global oil crisis. If he can help them do that, then that would be a win for Russia.

So those are some things that I think we can say about the relationship between Trump and Putin based on what we're seeing in Iran that go beyond this idea that Trump is a Russian agent and that he always just does what the Russians want. We need a more nuanced understanding of that relationship if we want to be able to explain what's going on.

Trump is not a Russian agent and Putin and Trump are not aligned on all issues. There are significant disagreements, and the Trump administration is capitalizing on the fact that Russia has been weakened due to the war in Ukraine and is unable to exercise power in the same way that they could just a few years ago. So when Biden provided the weapons to Ukraine, that helped set the conditions for what Trump is doing now and made it possible for Trump to wage this war in Iran. And now the Russians are providing targeting data to Iran because they would like to see the United States also getting bogged down in a war and they also want to see if they can use this to drive up the oil prices to help their economy.

I'm going to end it here. If you found the video helpful or informative, please give it a like. And also remember to subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon to get notifications whenever I upload new videos. If you want to support the channel, you can also get access to some bonus videos if you subscribe on my website www.logicofwar.com. Thank you very much for watching and I will see you again next time.