Trump is getting uninterested in Ukraine

Hello,

In this slightly rambling video, I discuss Donald Trump's reactions to the missile strike on Sumy, Zelensky's offer to buy American weapons, and why it looks like Donald Trump is getting frustrated and uninterested in the war in Ukraine.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

Hi, it's another beautiful day here in Denmark, so it's a good day also for a walk. What I want to do in this video is I want to talk a bit about some of the reactions that have come out since the terrible missile strike on Sumy on Palm Sunday, and especially Donald Trump's reaction, which has been very strange.

But I actually want to begin in last week when President Zelenskyy offered to buy quite a lot of patriot systems and missiles from the United States. So we now here have the Ukrainian president going out and asking not for military donations, but suggesting that Ukraine would buy American weapons for, I think it was $50 billion. It was a lot of money that they would pay for and actually buy. And Zelensky then suggested this could perhaps be part of the minerals deal and those things. But the important thing is Zelensky is offering here to buy, with real money, these missile systems.

And then he also does an interview on 60 Minutes, where he talks about how it's really important that there is in the United States, in the leadership in the United States, an understanding of what the situation in Ukraine is really about. So it's clear that he is frustrated by what he sees as basically ignorance in the American administration. He invites Donald Trump to come to Ukraine, look at things, see things with his own eyes, before he actually pushes for a peace deal on specific terms. You know, go to Ukraine, actually see what things are about. He talks against J.D. Vance, criticizes some of his statements. So this really annoys Donald Trump. That is clear. And he goes out and he makes threats against the TV station and the news program and all these things because he's really annoyed about it.

And then there is this terrible missile strike on Sumy where all world leaders go out and clearly condemn this strike that Russia has conducted. And it's been more or less unanimous. Pretty much everyone has done that. The coming German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, even said that now Germany is definitely ready to give the Taurus missile. So a very strong reaction from many countries.

But Donald Trump does the opposite. He goes out and he says that it was a Russian mistake. And it's not good that this happened, but it was a mistake and basically, you know, mistakes happen. And then later, when he's asked about these things and whether he will support Zelensky's suggestion to buy Patriot missiles, he basically says that the whole war is Zelensky's mistake. Zelensky should not have started this war, that he can't win, and such things. And Donald Trump also, in this whole mess here, writes some social media post where he blames the war on Zelensky and Biden, and repeats that this would never have started if he had been president, and all these things.

So what's going on here? I think this reaction is really interesting, because I think what we're seeing is beginning frustration for Donald Trump that he can't reach a deal. This is the emerging realization that this goal he had of a quick peace deal, it's unrealistic. It's not going to materialize. And now he is beginning to blame other people for this. He's blaming somebody else for starting a war. It's Biden's fault. It's Zelensky's fault. He's blaming the Ukrainians for continuing the war and wanting to buy more air defense missiles and these things.

I think this is the reaction we should expect from Donald Trump, the immediate reaction we will get when he understands that there is not going to be a quick success here, where he can look like the peace president who brought peace to Ukraine and solved this problem that nobody else could because he was this master dealmaker. The intuitive reaction we're going to get from him is that he will lose interest. He will try to get out of this. He doesn't want to have more to do with it. He will blame others for the mistakes and say, "I have better things to do with my time than to do this". And I think that is the reaction we are beginning to see here.

So Donald Trump has had enough with it. We saw the same in his first presidency, when he decided that now was a good time to have a summit with Kim Jong-un and solve the North Korea problem, and when it became clear that he couldn't solve the North Korea problem, he basically just from one day to the other totally stopped talking about it and lost interest in the whole question.

And I think that's what he is preparing to do here as well. Basically losing interest in the whole Ukraine question and trying to get out of it. And then the big question is, of course, what's that going to mean? And how is he going to be able to do that?

One question I got on as a comment to my previous video was about whether we could imagine that Trump would now realize that the way to end the war was to turn against Russia and to boost the aid to Ukraine, because this would be a way that maybe he could save this process. I think the answer to that question, unfortunately, is no. I think Donald Trump personally has very big admiration for Putin, and it's very unlikely that we're going to see him suddenly flip-flop on this question and start doing things that are really bad for Putin and for Russia.

But on the other hand, as I said in a previous video here on the channel, Donald Trump is facing the problem that he is fading into irrelevance. If the United States does not actually help Ukraine, then why would Ukraine or any of the European countries care what Donald Trump says about anything? And we're coming up against that deadline where there is no more aid to give from the previous aid package. So they will have to find some way of renewing that, of still providing something that is of value to Ukraine so that they still have a say.

And the thing is, Donald Trump, he would love to get a summit with Putin and get some kind of big event where he can meet Putin and they can do pictures and those things. But if Donald Trump is irrelevant to the whole question of this war, then also why would Putin give him any attention? So we are coming up against this time when Donald Trump will have to decide how to move forward.

I don't think we're going to see a new American aid package like the previous ones where it has been grants, where things are just given to Ukraine. But Zelensky has opened this discussion with this offer to buy American weapons. And that might be the best solution for Donald Trump, to go along with this and say, all right, we will let you or the European countries buy these weapons. And then we still have a seat at the table when these things are being discussed.

But it's going to be a strange or interesting period, because I think we are beginning to see the first examples of this frustration that Donald Trump has, that things are not working out for him, and that he can't get the deal he wants. And therefore, his intuitive reaction is to pull away, lose interest, and try not to have anything to do with it. But unfortunately for him, I think the realities on the ground are going to push themselves onto him and demand that he does something.

And that is really what the current diplomatic game is about. It is about in what way the American aid to Ukraine will continue. Will it be in the shape of America selling these weapons directly to Ukraine or through European partners? Or is there going to be no American assistance to Ukraine at all? And the Russians are, of course, trying to lobby for a complete cessation of this aid to Ukraine. But the Ukrainians and the Europeans are trying to push for this other solution and say, well, there is actually a middle ground between giving nothing and giving grants. And that is what Zelensky has offered.

But it will be interesting to see. And again, as I said in my last video, Wednesday this week, which is tomorrow, according to when I record this video, is the last day of the 30-day energy infrastructure ceasefire. And that means I think we're going to see massive Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia pretty soon. And, you know, that might re-energize this whole debate and give new perspectives on what it is we're seeing. All right. Thanks for watching. See you next time.