The energy ceasefire is ending

Hello,

The ceasefire on energy infrastructure is about to expire, which raises the interesting question of whether we will see massive Ukrainian attacks in the second half of the coming week.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

Hi! In this video I want to return to the energy infrastructure ceasefire and the reason is that it's about to expire. The first day of this energy infrastructure ceasefire was the 18th of March and it was said to have a duration of 30 days. So according to my counting, the last day is going to be this Wednesday. And that of course leaves the big question of what kinds of news we're going to wake up to on Thursday morning.

There is a lot of confusion about all these ceasefires and some people say that there is no ceasefire at all because no document has been signed between Russia and Ukraine about it. There is no clear definition of what is energy infrastructure and all those things. But I would say that I think we need a more pragmatic understanding of what a ceasefire is. It's not actually a requirement that there is a document or anything, it's just that if the two sides say that we have a ceasefire then, well, you basically have a ceasefire.

And the thing is that both Russia and Ukraine refer to this ceasefire on energy infrastructure all the time. They routinely blame each other for violating it. And we have seen on the Ukrainian side a significant reduction in the number of long-range airstrikes that they make. We have not seen these big attacks on Russian oil refineries and those things for the last almost month. So I think it's fair to say that the Ukrainians have definitely interpreted this as there being a ceasefire on energy infrastructure.

So that is what is about to expire. And I made a whole YouTube video on why I think this energy infrastructure ceasefire was generally a bad idea from a perspective of trying to bring this whole negotiation process closer to actually being about a peace deal. Because it doesn't meet the requirements that are necessary for actually giving the kind of conditions that are necessary to be productive. It has not in any way built trust between the Russians and the Ukrainians. And it has not at all given a kind of breathing room from the daily fighting. So I don't think it's been productive in that sense.

But I do think it's served a purpose for Ukraine in the sense that it has demonstrated to the United States that they have the willingness to do these things. So that might turn out to be beneficial at some point. We are starting to hear more and more about how Donald Trump is growing impatient with the Russians. Of course, we still haven't really seen any kind of action that will put coercion onto the Russians. But there is this idea that maybe we are getting closer to a point where the Americans will understand that the solution going forward, the way to bring about peace, will necessarily have to be that you put more pressure on Russia.

And then I think another important thing that has happened over the last month is that Donald Trump, with all this talk about tariffs, has basically caused the oil prices globally to more or less collapse. So we have seen a dramatic reduction in the oil prices. And that is putting a lot of pressure on the Russian economy. And if oil prices keep being this low, then the Russian economy is going to run into serious problems later this year.

And that, of course, begs the question of what is going to happen if and when Ukraine begins to strike these Russian oil facilities again. Because I think there is a very high likelihood that by the end of this coming week we are going to see a lot of news, a lot of burning oil refineries, a lot of burning energy infrastructure in Russia. Ukraine has saved up missiles. They definitely have the motivation. And they see this as crucial to winning the war.

So this is just to say that I think the likelihood of an extension of the energy infrastructure ceasefire is quite low. I think Ukraine believe that they have demonstrated what they needed to demonstrate here, that doing this was not actually going to lead to this broader general ceasefire that they had suggested or that they decided to go along with, that the Americans tried to promote. And that now the time has come to put some pressure back on the Russians. So, well, it's going to be really interesting to see what's going to happen when we get to the latter half of this week.