Russia's delay tactics are working

Hello,

In this video I discuss the diplomatic farce about peace negotiations in Istanbul. Despite the media hype, Putin was never going to meet Zelensky, and the negotiations were doomed from the beginning. But the most important thing is probably what it says about Donald Trump's resistance to putting actual pressure on Russia.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

Over the last week, there have been a lot of things happening on the diplomatic front, and the media has been full of discussions about the negotiations in Istanbul. And while on the one hand, I don't actually think that these things have been very significant, they have still gotten a lot of attention, and I think it's meaningful to make a video about it. So let's talk about it.

The negotiations in Istanbul and everything around it have received a lot of attention in the media. So much so that it has been almost agonizing to watch because on the one hand, the media has managed to create so much hype about it that many people actually thought that there was going to be a meeting between Putin and Zelensky on Thursday. But on the other hand, pretty much every expert who knows something about these things repeatedly said that that is not going to happen and there is no circumstance where this meeting is going to take place.

So to quickly recap what happened, it actually started with Russia's unilateral announcement of a three-day ceasefire that they had in connection with the Victory Day parade on May the 9th. This was the second time in less than a month that Russia declared a unilateral ceasefire and they just expected Ukraine to go along with it. Ukraine clearly was tired of playing these games because what they want is a longer ceasefire that could actually serve as a kind of meaningful foundation for some process towards peace. Because it's not meaningful to just have these breaks because there is some kind of holiday.

Ukraine and its Western partners decided that if Russia can declare a ceasefire unilaterally, then Ukraine can do the same. So they came up with this idea that they would present Russia with an ultimatum, that if Russia did not agree to a 30-day ceasefire by last Monday, then there would be significant new sanctions on Russia and increased military assistance to Ukraine.

This was announced by the leaders of the biggest European countries during a visit in Kyiv last weekend. And it was presented in a way that where it seemed like this was coordinated between the Europeans and the Americans. They were speaking on behalf of both Europe and the United States because these new sanctions, they would be both European and American. So it seems that these things were coordinated and the European leaders and President Zelensky believed that this was something that Donald Trump was on board with.

Putin's response to that was that Russia does not believe that there should be a ceasefire, but that instead we should just move straight to direct negotiations about a final peace settlement instead of having a ceasefire. This would be a continuation of the Istanbul talks that took place in the early days of Russia's invasion in 2022.

This is where Donald Trump flipped on the Ukrainians and the European countries. He more or less just abandoned the agreement that it looks like they had, that now it was finally going to be time to show some resolve towards the Russians. Because the appropriate thing to do when Russia rejected the idea of a ceasefire and you had issued an ultimatum, that would be to go ahead and actually implement the consequences that you had threatened to implement.

But by floating this idea of negotiations in Istanbul, Putin gave Donald Trump an excuse to continue doing nothing and Donald Trump was happy to do that. So he posted on social media that this seemed like a good opportunity for Zelensky to have a meeting, and that the Ukrainians should definitely take that meeting.

So everyone but Donald Trump could see that this was not a genuine offer about negotiations. It was just a Russian delay tactic but Donald Trump was happy to go with it. And that's when the Ukrainians came up with this idea that this could be a meeting and negotiations at the level of state leaders. So a personal meeting between Zelensky and Putin. The idea was that by doing this, Ukraine would demonstrate once again to Donald Trump that they have unconditional commitment to any initiative that can bring about peace. And then if Putin didn't show up personally, then that would show a smaller Russian commitment.

So that's how the media got this idea that there was going to be a meeting between Zelensky and Putin on Thursday. In reality, that was never going to happen. First, the Russians clearly don't want to give the impression that Ukraine can dictate when there will be a meeting that involves Putin. So just the way that this was announced made it clear that Putin could never go.

But even more importantly, Putin does not see Zelensky as an equal. He doesn't see them as being on the same level and therefore he does not want to give Zelensky that legitimacy. It's possible that Zelensky could maybe get a meeting with Foreign Minister Lavrov but not with Putin personally because from a Russian perspective, they don't regard him as someone who is worthy of Putin's presence.

And also, the Russians have spent the last year trying to spin this narrative that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader of Ukraine because due to martial law, there haven't been presidential elections. According to the Russians, this means that Zelensky is illegitimate. And Putin with his 87% victory in his presidential election is of course very clearly very legitimate.

So the Russians have been building this narrative that they can't negotiate with Zelensky because there are some formalities about procedures of government that mean that Zelensky does not have the right to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine anymore. That pretty much also rules out the possibility that Putin could actually show up at this meeting and have negotiations with Zelensky.

So of course that meeting was never going to take place. The latest development right now is that Donald Trump is talking about how he will probably try to get a meeting with Putin within the coming weeks because he believes that he's the only person who can actually make a deal with Putin. He thinks that if they can just get together in a room and talk it out, then it will be pretty easy and he will be able to solve the problem.

So all in all, it's been quite a frustrating week to follow the news because there has been so much talk about nothing. I just want to finish off this video with a few remarks about where I think we are and what to follow next.

1: The Russian delay tactics are working. The week started with a very strong Western ultimatum to Russia, but as soon as the Russians gave Donald Trump an excuse to continue doing nothing, then he went along with it. And it looks like this is going to continue because now Donald Trump has this idea of a personal meeting between him and Putin, and this will give the Russians more opportunities to delay things. Because there will be all kinds of scheduling challenges and things to do and things that need to be sorted out before this can happen. So it looks like the Russian delay tactics will continue and probably be fairly successful, at least in terms of pacifying the United States.

2: This shows that Donald Trump really does not want to do anything that can hurt Russia. As I said in my recent video about how Trump might end up supporting Ukraine, the thing is that he ideologically really likes Russia. He is more in line with them than he is with the Europeans. There might be different political pressures that mean that he will end up having to support Ukraine and provide at least some kind of aid. But it's not because he wants to. That's because he will have to do so in order to stay relevant and to have a voice in the conflict.

But it's very important to keep this in mind when we as Europeans look at the United States, that our decision makers now understand that we cannot trust the United States as a security partner. Because Donald Trump is constantly looking for excuses to align with Russia.

3: It is now up to the Europeans to follow through on the ultimatum. There have to be some kind of consequences for not going with the ceasefire for the Russians. The Russians already don't have a high regard for the Europeans, and if the Europeans don't follow through on this now, then they will have even less credibility in the future. So, Europe has to do something about this.

4: While all this is going on, the American aid to Ukraine is still flowing. So as frustrating as it is to watch all these things and observe this absolute embarrassment of American diplomacy that has been happening over the last week, it has after all so far not had catastrophic consequences for Ukraine. And I think that's also important to keep in mind, even though it's really frustrating.

Okay, I think enough of that. I'm done talking about this Istanbul circus. I am going to end it here. If you found this video helpful or informative, then please give it a like. And also remember to subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon to get notifications when I upload new videos. If you want to support this channel, you can subscribe to my newsletter and you can get access to bonus videos by going to www.logicofwar.com. Thank you very much for watching, and I will see you again next time.