How many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the war?

In the fall, the Wall Street Journal published an article citing undisclosed sources, stating that there are 80,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers in the war with Russia so far. That's a very big number. If we use the typical rule of thumb that there are three wounded soldiers for every dead, then that would place Ukraine's casualties at more than 300,000 dead or wounded soldiers during the war.

This number was recirculated at the end of November when The Economist published an article that made claims about Ukrainian losses in the same ballpark. President Zelensky was quick to announce that this number was incorrect and that Ukraine's actual casualties are much lower.

Then, in the beginning of December, Zelensky announced the official numbers: 43,000 KIA (killed in action) during the war so far. He also mentioned that there are official reports about 370,000 wounded soldiers, but many of these wounds were minor, and some of them include soldiers who have been wounded more than once. Therefore, the actual number of wounded soldiers is smaller.

The last time Zelensky provided comparable numbers was in February 2024, when he said that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had lost their lives during the war. In other words, between February and December, that number grew by about 12,000, which means that there are about 1,300-1,400 dead Ukrainian soldiers per month. That's a significant number, but if we are to also trust the Ukrainian figures regarding Russian casualties, then it's about the same number of killed soldiers as Russia has in six days.

The Ukrainian General Staff publishes data about Russian casualties every day. The number is approximately 760,000 personnel casualties as of today, which includes the dead, wounded, missing, and prisoners of war. In February, the number was about 510,000. This means that, for the same period, Russia had a total number of casualties of about 250,000. If we use the normal rule of thumb of three wounded for every killed soldier, that gives about 62,500 killed Russian soldiers in the same period. In other words, the ratio is about 1 to 5 between Ukrainian and Russian KIA.

Ukraine's numbers for Russian casualties

It is generally recognized that Ukraine has fewer casualties than Russia because Russia is more tolerant of losses and also because of the tactics that Russia uses, which lead to higher casualty numbers. But still, a 5-to-1 ratio seems too large to be realistic, and it does leave one wondering how these numbers fit together.

In the beginning of the invasion, there was a lot of talk about how accurate the Ukrainian numbers of claimed Russian losses were, and whether the Ukrainians were inflating the numbers to make themselves look better. However, it is now generally acknowledged that these numbers are fairly accurate. The Ukrainians put a lot of effort into validating the claims they make about Russian casualties, and if we compare the numbers to other sources that estimate Russian losses, they are in the same ballpark.

For example, there is a media outlet called Mediazona that tracks the number of confirmed cases of killed Russian soldiers by looking at social media posts and local media announcements about killed soldiers and funerals. They have currently verified over 82,000 names of killed Russian soldiers. However, they are also very clear that their method gives a number significantly below the real number because not all cases leave traces on the internet.

Another method that has been applied is to look at court rulings on inheritance cases of Russian men of fighting age. Based on that, a database of killed Russian soldiers can be established. Back in July, this method estimated the number of dead Russian soldiers to be above 120,000.

If we take these numbers and correct them for a margin of error, it is plausible that the number of Russian soldiers killed is between 150,000 and 200,000. If we use the rule of three wounded soldiers per killed soldier, we get a number that is very close to the official Ukrainian figure of Russian casualties.

Zelensky's numbers are problematic

If the Ukrainian number for Russian casualties seems accurate, then that raises serious questions about Zelensky's claims regarding Ukrainian losses. This is a topic that might be sensitive for some people because they want to believe what Zelensky says, but I think it's important that we in the West are clear-eyed about this. Back in February, I spoke to people in Ukraine who expressed deep frustration about Zelensky releasing the casualty number of 31,000 KIAs because, as they put it, everyone knows that he's lying. Either they criticized him for stating a number that was blatantly wrong, or they criticized him for mentioning a number of confirmed killed soldiers without addressing the significant issue of missing soldiers, most of whom are presumed dead.

There is a web portal called UALosses, which provides the same kind of statistics as Mediazona but from the Ukrainian side. They have currently identified the names of 66,622 Ukrainian soldiers killed during the war. Because their methods are built on identifying the killed persons over the internet, they will not have a complete picture. However, I think it's fair to assume that it is easier to do this work in Ukraine, where there is open internet access and more people have social media profiles than in Russia. That means we can assume that the error is smaller for the Ukrainian numbers. In other words, we end up with a number that is quite close to the 80,000 figure that was circulated in the Western media earlier in the fall. This would give a ratio of about 1 to 2 between Ukrainian and Russian KIAs, which seems realistic.

It also aligns better with Zelensky's own figures about the number of wounded soldiers because it would bring the ratio between wounded and killed into something that is at least in the ballpark of the normal rule of thumb.

I'm not writing this to dunk on Zelensky. The reason they do this is that the topic of casualties is so sensitive both in Ukraine and in the West. There is a strong urge to present the picture in a rosier way than it really is, because that can improve morale.

When it comes to the Russian casualty numbers, the most important priority in the Ukrainian government is their own credibility, and therefore they put a great deal of effort into verification and accuracy. But I think it's important to be aware that when they talk about their own losses, they don't have the same order of priorities. Therefore, there is good reason to be skeptical, and we probably shouldn't put too much weight on the figure that Zelensky gives in this case.