Why a Russian frigate fired warning shots at a British yacht

In this video, I discuss how warships deal with asymmetric threats and why that contributed to the incident where a Russian frigate fired warning shots at a British yacht in the English Channel.

Watch the video here or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

The other day, there was an incident in the English Channel where a Russian frigate fired warning shots at a yacht. This created quite a discussion about what this Russian frigate was up to and why they behaved so aggressively. And while some of that criticism was justified, I think this discussion also demonstrated that many people don't quite understand how warships operate in these types of situations, and that led to misinterpretations.

So what I want to do in this video is just explain how warships deal with these types of situations, what considerations go into the planning of reactions, and why that can create situations where it seems that the warship behaves in an excessively aggressive manner. So let's talk about it.

What I'm going to do in this video is first, I'm going to talk a bit about how warships in general defend themselves against asymmetric threats. And then I'm going to finish off with some comments about what happened in the English Channel. But first, it's necessary to discuss two important conditions that influence how warships operate.

The first condition is that warships are vulnerable. This may sound very trivial, but the fact is that if a warship is hit, then it can sink. One hit can lead to the loss of the entire platform, and the entire crew can perish. And that means that there's a lot at stake for the warship and for the crew members on board.

So a warship is a potent platform that can carry formidable firepower, but it's also extremely vulnerable. And that means that there's basically zero tolerance for taking a hit when you prepare the warship's reactions to threats.

The second condition that it's important to be aware of is that a warship is a complex organization with a large crew that needs to work together to solve any task. You will have people on the bridge, people in the operations room, people in the radio station, people in the engine department, people on the deck to operate machine guns, people in damage control units, etc.

So in total, that's a lot of people who all need to understand what's going on and what their job is in the larger system for the ship to be able to perform any task. And they need to be able to solve those tasks under time pressure where there is a lot at stake, and basically there will be no time for discussions or explanations about what's going on.

The way you organize things so that this complex system is able to perform tasks is by developing standard procedures for various situations. And then you practice those procedures until every crew member understands what they're supposed to do and how the task is solved.

But that also means that there is quite a bit of rigidity in how warships handle tasks. So of course, you can apply judgment in the specific situation. But as the commanding officer, you really don't want to be improvising how tasks are solved because that's just going to lead to chaos.

And as the commanding officer, you also want to think through the various scenarios and dilemmas before you face them in a real situation because this allows you to free up mental bandwidth so you can stay on top of the situation when it occurs and actually follow events. You want to incorporate all these dilemmas into the standard procedures for such situations because that ensures that you have considered all the different aspects and that your crew is prepared to execute the reactions you want.

So those are the two basic conditions or considerations you need to keep in mind if you want to understand how warships prepare to handle asymmetric threats. The first point is that warships are vulnerable and that avoiding taking a hit is the absolute first priority. And the second point is that warships need to operate based on standard procedures because that's the only way to ensure that the organization can perform under pressure.

So what would such a procedure look like when you're talking about reactions to asymmetric threats? And by asymmetric threats, I mean something like a speedboat or a yacht that's filled with explosives that just sails up to the warship and detonates on the side. Or perhaps that the peaceful-looking crew members suddenly pick up grenade launchers and start firing at you. Or it could be something like a slow, low-flying plane that crashes into the side of the warship. So those types of threats where you're not up against enemy missiles or something similar, but rather you're up against something that's asymmetric.

And I'm going to give a very simple example of how this could roughly look. Of course, these things will be specific for every type of warship. Just take this as an example to give an idea of the types of things that would be included in such a procedure.

But typically, the steps you take will be determined by the distance you have to the threat or to the target. And in this type of situation, it seems reasonable that the first step would be taken at a distance of about maybe two nautical miles. So when the sailing yacht gets closer than about two nautical miles, that's when things will start happening on the warship.

The first thing that happens is that the warship increases its level of readiness. You call more people on watch. The bridge crew is augmented. You have more people in the operations room, in the engine department. You start getting people ready in damage control units. You man the guns on the deck.

So many things will start happening inside the warship that you can't see from the outside. And of course, that's kind of inconvenient if it's not necessary. So warships typically do everything they can to avoid the situation. As the officer of the watch, one of your primary tasks is to ensure that no yacht unnecessarily gets closer than two nautical miles. And you really don't want to be the guy who has to call the captain and wake him up in the middle of the night because you weren't paying attention.

So warships try to do what they can to actually avoid getting close to the threat. And that is the first step in self-defense. But if it's not possible to avoid it, then that's what will happen.

The next step in the procedure could occur at a distance of maybe one nautical mile, so that's about two kilometers. Typically, this would involve hailing the other ship on the VHF radio. In the beginning, you might be friendly and polite, but if that does not get the reaction you want, then you're typically going to be saying some pretty aggressive stuff on the radio to make sure that the other ship understands the seriousness of the situation.

The VHF radio is not some bulletproof system that guarantees that you can always talk to everyone at sea. In fact, you very often find that you get no response from the other ship, especially from yachts.

I'd say there is maybe a 10% to 20% chance of actually making a connection. And that's just because the physical conditions on yachts are not conducive to maintaining a constant radio watch. On a yacht, it very easily blends into the background noise and it becomes difficult to hear.

If hailing on the radio does not work, then you might take the next step at, say, half a mile, which is about one kilometer. And that could typically involve actions like sounding the horn and flashing your lights to attract attention.

If that does not work, then at 0.3 nautical miles, you might take the next step, which could be to fire warning shots into the air. At 0.2 nautical miles, you might escalate the situation further by firing warning shots into the water in front of the other boat. So this way, they will not only hear the gunshots, but they will also see splashes in the water.

And then if that does not work, at 0.1 nautical miles or a little less than 200 meters, you might start shooting directly at the other ship.

So this is an example of what a procedure to counter asymmetric threats might look like. And then you can, of course, have variations of it. For example, there might be differences in how you react to a sailing yacht compared to a speedboat because the speedboat is going to be traveling the distances much faster. So maybe you want to react sooner to that.

In the case from the English Channel, the British couple on the sailing yacht explained that they were at a distance of about 400 to 500 meters from the Russian warship when it started shooting with shots going into the air. That is a distance of about a quarter of a nautical mile. So that's about the same distance at which I said it would be reasonable to have in your procedure that you would be firing warning shots.

And this is when we get into the different mental states that this British couple and the Russian warship were in. Because the yachters were thinking in terms of collision danger. From their perspective, four or five hundred meters, that's a long distance. That's pretty far when you're in a yacht. In fact, very often, yachters will feel absolutely comfortable passing each other at distances of, say, 50 meters.

But from the warship, four or five hundred meters, that's extremely close and it's dangerous.

I don't know how fast this British yacht was sailing at the time, but if we say that it was going six knots, then that would be sailing 0.1 nautical mile per minute. This would mean that the yacht was only about two minutes away from the Russian warship. That's not a lot of reaction time, and that's why this yacht could not be allowed to get any closer from the warship's perspective.

Something I've seen many people saying about this situation is that the Russian warship overreacted. The argument is that they should know that the English Channel is not a war zone, so there is no reason to be so hysterical about a sailing yacht with two British pensioners.

There is some truth to that in the sense that, of course, warships can't maintain a two-mile safety zone from all yachts everywhere at all times. If you are in constrained waters, ships are going to get closer than that. And if you're not in a war zone, then typically you would be kind of okay with it.

But the thing to understand is that Russia is a country at war, and the Russian Navy is vulnerable everywhere they go. Ukraine constantly targets Russian warships, and there is absolutely no reason to expect that the Ukrainian intelligence services wouldn't also try to hit a Russian frigate in the English Channel if they get the chance.

So I think it's understandable that the Russian captain would operate under the assumption that every yacht or fishing boat that they see is a potential threat, and it could be a concealed Ukrainian intelligence operation.

In this specific case, it's been mentioned that the Russian ship was actually drifting at the time of the incident. It's been speculated that this is because it's low on fuel and that it doesn't really have reliable means of refueling in the English Channel.

If that is the case, then it explains why the Russian warship did not simply maneuver to increase the distance from the English yacht. It also means that to a large extent, this Russian frigate is a sitting duck that is even more vulnerable to various types of asymmetric threats. So you can see why the crew would be on edge.

I've also seen many people saying that this Russian frigate shouldn't be in the English Channel in the first place, that it's just there to intimidate Britain and France and to cause trouble. And since it doesn't really have any good reason to be there, it should just leave and stop behaving like a bully towards the other shipping in the area.

And that is true in the sense that the presence of this Russian warship in the English Channel is obviously not benign. It is there to intimidate NATO. It is there to complicate the effort to stop Russian shadow fleet tankers from passing through the Channel.

But the problem with that argument is that it's not particularly actionable. Sure, it's super annoying that this Russian frigate is doing what it's doing, just as in any war, it's super annoying that the enemy is fighting back, but that's kind of just how things are. And just because you say that you think this Russian frigate should go home, they're not going to go home. The captain has been assigned to do exactly what he's doing, so he's going to keep doing that.

And that's also why I think people who are yachting in the English Channel or anywhere where Russian warships operate, such as the Danish Straits or the Baltic Sea, just don't go near them. You might trigger the actions I mentioned above without realizing it until you're pretty close.

From your perspective, everything still looks fine, but I can tell you that on the other side, on the Russian warship, there will be sailors who are extremely nervous and who are manning the machine gun. And they are prepared to defend themselves against a threat that you probably haven't even considered, but that's extremely real to them. So just don't go near them.