Why Putin believes the war is defensive

Hello,

In this video I discuss the Russian idea of "greatness", and why it's important to understand the ideological dimension of the war. As I see it, this is the primary reason why Russia is unwilling to pursue negotiations. Paradoxically, they are closer to having achieved "greatness" while the war is ongoing than they will be if they make peace.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

Right now there is a lot of talk about possible ceasefires and peace negotiations and much of that is centered around the question, what will it take for Putin to accept a deal? But I think a lot of the discussion has been detached from the question of what it actually is that Putin is fighting for, and what in his view is the war about. And especially many people tend to forget the great power perspective that is so important for the Russian war narrative. So, what I want to do in this video is just take a step back and discuss just in very broad terms what Putin actually believes that this war is about and why he's fighting. So, let's talk about it.

When Putin is debating with himself whether to engage in a peace process or continue the war, then he's balancing two different considerations or instincts. On the one hand, Putin's Russia is what Mark Galeotti has called an adhocracy. They have a very ad hoc way of making decisions and leading the country. It's not some big master plan that reaches out many years into the future where they know exactly what they will do, but rather it's a series of ad hoc decisions that lead sort of in the right general direction.

So Putin will look at the current situation and decide what he wants to do. And that might also involve making short-term compromises if that is the best thing to do given the circumstances.

But it's also a mistake to assume that everything is decided by short-term pragmatism. Putin's Russia is deeply ideological in the sense that they are fighting for an idea, and that idea is the greatness of Russia. There is an almost mystical belief in the idea of Russia as a great power, and that idea has attained an almost religious status in the way that they talk about it and how they make decisions to advance the greatness of Russia. Vlad Vexler often talks about how Putin's worldview is actually more similar to Al-Qaeda's than it is to the Soviet leadership under Brezhnev. And that's because there is this element of mysticism that is guiding their understanding of the world and the decisions that they make.

This obsession with the idea of greatness for Russia is very important for understanding how Putin sees the war in Ukraine. They're fighting for Russia's position as a great power in the world.

In the Russian worldview, the world consists of great powers and small states, and there are very few great powers in the world. There is Russia, there is the United States, China, maybe a few others, but the majority of countries in the world are small states. It's the great powers that set the direction in world politics. It's the great powers that make the rules, and it's the role of the small states to constantly orient themselves toward the great powers and to adapt their policy to whatever the great powers do.

The Russian leadership views Russia's role as a great power as being under threat. Bit by bit, since the end of the Cold War, the Western countries have dismantled the features that make Russia a great power. If this development continues for a couple more decades, then Russia might no longer be a great power. Then it will just be a nation state like other nation states without that privileged position where it can set the direction of world politics.

So, for example, when Russia's neighboring countries have joined NATO, then that has made it impossible for Russia to exert its sphere of influence over small states in their vicinity. Because in their mind, this is one of the attributes that makes a country great power. It's that they have this sphere of influence. That is how Ukraine joining NATO, for example, would be a threat to Russia. Not because Ukraine or NATO is going to invade Russia, but because it undermines Russia's ability to have a sphere of influence. And therefore, it's devastating for the idea of Russia's greatness if Ukraine joins NATO.

This is the perspective that I think most people in the West don't understand about Russia's war in Ukraine, that in Putin's mindset, this is actually a defensive war. We tend to think of it as an imperialist war of aggression, and that is also true. But in Putin's mind, it's a defensive war where they're fighting to preserve Russia as a great power. They're fighting for this mystical idea of Russia's greatness, which has an almost religious status and that they see as being under threat.

So ironically, the war in Ukraine is being fought by two sides who both see themselves fighting a defensive war. That's important because when you're fighting a defensive war, you're more likely to see it as a war of necessity and not a war of choice. you will be willing to tolerate much bigger casualties.

So these are the two considerations that Putin will be weighing against each other when he's debating with himself whether to pursue a ceasefire and to have negotiations or to continue the war. On the one hand, there is a tradition of short-term pragmatism and flexibility and being willing to change the goals and tactics on the fly and make the necessary compromises. But on the other hand, there's also this deeply ideological element about fighting for Russia's greatness and a sense of urgency that they're fighting a defensive war to protect Russia's status as a great power.

If these two things, the short-term and the long-term perspectives, can point in the same direction, then that's great. If Putin can see how pursuing negotiations will also benefit Russia's great power aspirations and perhaps can give them a bit of breathing room while still working in the right direction, then he will do that. But if the short-term pragmatism will be dangerous for Russia's goals of securing great power status, then there is a dilemma.

Recently, there's been a lot of debate about whether Putin made a mistake when he rejected an American proposal for a peace settlement that would give Russia a lot of concessions. I don't think he made a mistake. First, I would say I don't think that this peace plan was actually an offer that was on the table for Putin because the Ukrainians were going to say no. So, it's a bit of a redundant discussion to talk about whether he should have taken it or not because the offer wasn't real.

But more importantly, I think it's crucial to keep in mind that a peace agreement for Putin must ensure that Russia will enhance its position as a great power. This is what the Russians talk about when they talk about addressing the root causes of the war.

So, for any peace agreement to be acceptable to Putin, it will have to establish a future relationship where Russia is a great power and Ukraine is a small state that lives in Russia's sphere of influence. And in all the talk about the different proposals that there have been so far and even despite all the concessions that Russia was supposed to get, the premise has always been that this should be a final settlement that would end the conflict once and for all. It would basically be an agreement that would normalize the relationship between Russia and Ukraine where they would just be two countries that share a border, and then all other countries in the world could stop worrying about it and start thinking about other things.

So even despite all the concessions that Russia was supposed to get in this proposal, they wouldn't actually be getting any of the things that they're fighting for in terms of establishing Russia as a great power. They would be getting a bit of land in eastern Ukraine, but they would not be gaining a sphere of influence over other countries. And once the war was over, they would not have a particularly privileged position to dictate world politics.

Right now, everyone is eager to talk with the Russians. There is so much talk about talks and how we can get the Russians to the table. So they have our attention. And the entire world press is waiting with excitement every time there are rumors that Putin might say something. But that's because there is a war going on in Ukraine, and because Donald Trump has insisted on negotiations. The moment the war in Ukraine is over and resolved, then Russia would fall back to just being a regional power. They would fade away from the news.

So ironically, if the goal is to satisfy this idea of Russia's greatness and to assert Russia as a great power in the world, then they're actually closer to achieving that goal while the war is going on than they would be if the war ended with any of the proposals that have been on the table so far. And that's why even though the proposals that have been discussed have been pretty bad for Ukraine, they've actually also been pretty bad from a Russian perspective. Because they will undermine Russia's long-term great power aspirations.

The last thing the Russians need right now is to give the Ukrainians and the Europeans 10 years of peace and quiet to turn all those hundreds of billions of euros that are currently being allocated to defense into actual military capabilities. And in the meantime, then Russia could fade out of the picture. Because if that happens, in that situation, they would actually have lost the war. That would be the end of Russia's greatness, which is the whole purpose of the war.

So what I'm saying is that right now, there isn't harmony between Putin's pragmatic willingness to make short-term compromises and the bigger aspiration of securing Russia as a great power. He's looking at these two things and he's seeing that there are some challenges here now that might suggest that it could be a good idea for Russia to end the war or have a pause. But on the other hand, he sees that doing so will carry a significant risk of strategic defeat.

Sometimes people will say that Putin needs the war to continue for regime security reasons. So for his own benefit. But I think even more importantly, we are actually in a situation now where paradoxically Russia needs the war to continue to entertain this mystical idea Russia's greatness.

And this also means that I think we should expect Putin to be very reluctant to take any kind of deal, no matter how good we think it looks for Russia or how many concessions Ukraine is asked to make. Because from Putin's perspective, it's actually better for Russia to keep fighting.

The only acceptable way to end this war is one that establishes a new security order in Europe where there is a formalization of this great power relationship that Putin believes reflects the realities on the ground, and that apparently no one else is willing to give him at this point.

Of course, it's possible that at some point Russia will be forced to accept that they cannot continue the war if they run sufficiently out of resources. But they're not at that point yet. And that's why we should be careful about getting excited over all the talk about peace negotiations.

I think it's important when we have these discussions about what Russia will be willing to accept and why Putin did not take this or that deal, that we remember that for them, it's the great power perspective that decides whether a proposal is good or bad. And ultimately, this war is more about ideology and the idea of Russia's greatness than it's about solving some specific issues in eastern Ukraine. And in fact, solving those issues might even be counterproductive to the bigger goal of Russia's greatness.

Okay, I will end it here. If you found the video helpful or informative, then please give it a like, and also remember to subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon to get notifications when I upload new videos. And if you want to support the channel, you can subscribe to my newsletter and get access to some bonus videos at www.logicofwar.com. Thank you very much for watching, and I will see you again next time.