What Putin thinks about a reset of US-Russia relations

Hello,

In this video, I discuss what the Russians think about the prospect of the United States leaving negotiations about a ceasefire or peace in Ukraine, and why they might not be interested in too close a relationship with the Trump administration.

Listening to the video, I realize that I managed to get thoroughly confused about the numbering in the bullet list. I guess I need to practice counting. However, I think it brings up some important points to keep in mind, because Trump's desire for a reset in US-Russia relations seems quite detached from how Putin look at the situation.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

Hi. There is a lot of things happening on the diplomatic front these days. It's hard to keep up with all the events. But from the American point of view, we have entered into what can be called a kind of endgame of the negotiations that are going on. They have prepared a plan that is an American plan for how to achieve a ceasefire and potentially peace in Ukraine. And they have sent a delegation to Europe to present this plan for the Ukrainians and the Europeans. That happened last week.

Then there was this very significant statement from both Rubio and Trump that if this does not lead to anything very soon, then the Americans are just going to leave this. They don't want to keep on doing these forever negotiations that don't lead to anything. They want to see movement now.

Then over the weekend, there was the surprise announcement by Putin that they were going to do an Easter ceasefire to stop the shooting over Easter. Because, yeah, that's a kind of goodwill gesture, I guess. And it's important to note that there was a small decline in the shooting, but it was by no means a complete ceasefire. But there was a little bit of less shooting, and they're back to shooting again now.

I think it's difficult not to see all these things connected and that there are things going on on the diplomatic front that are interesting. What I want to do in this video is to address something that I've seen quite a bit after following the announcement that the Americans might be willing to say, "well, we are out of here. We don't want to do these negotiations anymore. We don't care about the war in Ukraine anymore". There's been a discussion about what does that mean if the United States actually say "we are out". Does that mean that the United States would be a neutral player going forward? Or does it mean that the United States and Donald Trump are going to keep on working on a normalization of relations with Russia, and that the United States is going to help Russia in a way that might give Russia an advantage in the war.

Especially someone like Phillips O'Brien, who I think personally is one of the best analysts of the war out there, one of those who's been most right about most things. He's very concerned about this because he sees definitely Donald Trump now going for a full normalization of the relationship with Russia, which means lifting the sanctions and helping the Russian economy. And most concerning, he sees this as opening the gates for China to go all in on helping Russia and give Russia all the weapons they need to really put pressure on Ukraine and on Europe without concerns of secondary sanctions and those things that have held China back.

So he's very concerned that this opens up for a future where we can talk about a Russia-US-China alliance against Ukraine, which obviously sounds kind of wild, but is definitely also very concerning if it happens. What I thought I'd do, though, is to provide some of the Russian perspective on this and where we have the Russians. What does it look like they want to do? And why? And how would they think about the perspective of such a U.S.-Russia future alliance.

The first thing I would say is I think it's difficult not to see the Easter ceasefire as related to the announcement by the Americans that they might be leaving the whole thing. Russia has made these kinds of announcements before, a Christmas ceasefire and an Easter ceasefire, all kinds of different small ceasefires, and they've never really held. But anyways, it's difficult not to see this one as related to the announcement the day before that the Americans might be about to leave this. And that tells me that the Russians, first of all, want to keep the Americans in the negotiations. It looks like a spontaneous reaction to the American announcement, and that they really want to keep the Americans in this. So they wanted to give this as a kind of goodwill gesture. They wanted to show that they are really into this and that they do want peace and those things.

So that's one thing. But the other one is, I also think it shows that it was not coordinated with the Russians, this announcement. They were taken by surprise by this American announcement. And that's why we saw a sudden reaction. So the first thing I will say is I do not see really clear signs that things are coordinated between the White House and the Kremlin in the sense of what will happen and when and why.

So that's the first one. The second one is that I'm quite convinced that Putin does not believe in this idea of a reset of US-Russia relations. He believes that Donald Trump might be interested in this, but that is personal about Donald Trump. In Putin's worldview, there is a permanent geopolitical standoff between the United States and Russia. And there might be right now be a president in the White House who doesn't see it that way. But that actually says more about Donald Trump and his inability to see what the real geopolitical interests of this country are, than it says about where we have the United States.

So in Putin's mind, there will be a return to a power struggle where Russia and the United States are on opposite sides. And he can't build a lasting relationship with the United States on the fact that Donald Trump is there right now and that Donald Trump doesn't really understand geopolitics. So that's the first one. Putin doesn't actually believe in the idea of a US-Russia reset.

The second thing is that Putin actually also doesn't want that. Putin is dependent, the whole legitimacy of his government, of his rule, depends on this enemy relationship that is out there, that it is him against NATO. It is him against the United States, and the evil West is out there to get Russia. This is something that legitimizes repression in Russia. It legitimizes the way Putin runs the government. It legitimizes the war that is going on in Ukraine. And Putin is dependent on this.

Sometimes there is the discussion, is it possible that Putin could get out of the war in Ukraine? Or will that mean that whole regime will collapse because he needs the war to continue. I think it's possible that he could live with a situation where the shooting in Ukraine ends, at least for a period of time. But it's very difficult to see Putin's government continue while there is a new relationship where it's all kumbaya and, you know, Russia and the United States get along very well and there is no enemy anymore. He needs that kind of ongoing war with the United States to continue to legitimize his government. So he's not actually interested in that kind of reset. So 1) he doesn't believe in it, and 2) he's not really interested.

Then there is the whole question what would it for the war in Ukraine. It's very important to be aware that in the Russian narrative, they are not just fighting the Ukrainians, they are fighting all of NATO in Ukraine. So this is an American, a NATO proxy war that the Ukrainians are fighting. And that explains why it is that things are taking so long time. In the Russian perspective, "We are this great army. We are one of the best armies in the world. And the reason why we can't just win very quickly in Ukraine is because we're not fighting the Ukrainians. We are fighting NATO. And we're actually winning that war. So that means we're not the second greatest army in the world. We are number one. Because we're beating the others".

This is the narrative. So Putin needs to have this way of explaining the war and why things are so difficult in the war. Why they're not having bigger success faster. And if there is a situation where the United States on paper abandons Ukraine and normalizes relationships with the Russians and start working together with the Russians, and they still can't win on the ground in Ukraine, then it's much more difficult to explain what's going on. Putin actually needs to be able to say to the Russian people that this is a war against NATO. And for that reason, he's not really interested in the United States abandoning Ukraine entirely before there is a final settlement where they have won the war.

And finally, the last point I will make here is that it's important for Putin to keep the negotiations going. Because the ongoing negotiations are actually great for Russian recruitment. We are seeing right now a tendency toward increased recruitment in Russia because there are more volunteers. Because Russian men now believe that there is a ceasefire around the corner so they can sign up and get these very big bonuses for signing up to the army. And then, before they even arrive at the front line, the war is going to be over, and there's going to be a ceasefire. There's going to be peace.

So we are actually seeing right now that there is an increase in the number of volunteers in Russia. And that is driven by the fact that there are ongoing negotiations. So ironically, Putin is not interested really in the United States abandoning Ukraine. But he also wants the negotiations to keep on rolling. And that's why we will see the Russians doing whatever they can to keep the Americans at the negotiating table and just keep the conversation going and trying to prevent the Americans from giving too much help to the Ukrainians.

But still, on paper at least, they want the Americans to stay somewhat engaged in the war. And then from the Russian perspective, they still see this very much as a war where it's the great powers that are pulling the strings. What they want is the United States to do their job and to take care of the small states that are in the American sphere of influence. So that is the Ukrainians and it's the Europeans. They have a huge problem of accepting the facts of Ukrainian and European agency. And they want the United States to keep on playing the same role where they can control these Europeans.

So that was my take on how the Russians look at this. And why the Russians are actually not super excited about the idea of America leaving the negotiations or too openly joining sides with Russia and going ahead and normalizing a relationship with Russia while totally abandoning its, well, in that case, former Western allies.

All right, that was it for this time. Thanks for watching.