What is the military threat against Greenland?

Hello,

In the wake of J.D. Vance's visit to Greenland and the verbal attacks against Denmark, I thought it would be appropriate to review the military threats against Greenland and assess where the American administration might have a valid point and where they do not. The most important thing is to distinguish between military threats against the Greenlanders themselves and the role that Greenland plays in broader European and North American security.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

This week, JD Vance visited Greenland and I thought I'd comment on it here. Originally the plan was that his wife would go to Greenland on a PR trip, but it appears the Americans discovered that this was not popular and they changed the plans. So we had JD Vance going to the Pituffik Space Base, which is an American base in Greenland where they could entirely control the narrative.

It's still a big discussion, why is it that the Americans suddenly have this interest in Greenland? It very much appears that they want to annex Greenland and make it a part of the United States, and apparently that is an important priority. Donald Trump has said that several times lately as well. It's difficult to figure out exactly why it is they're doing that and what they think they will gain from owning Greenland.

But what I wanted to do here was to address one of the arguments that they have been making and that JD Vance has been making a lot, and that is about security and the fact that Denmark has not done enough to protect Greenland, to invest in the military defense of Greenland. That is something he has said repeatedly this week.

Essentially there are two security arguments here that are quite different. One of them is that Denmark has not done enough to protect the Greenlanders, and the other one is that Denmark has been a bad ally and not done enough to invest in military capabilities that can help the defense of the United States. These are two different perspectives on Greenland about the safety of Greenlanders and the extended defense of the United States.

And I thought I'd just quickly address these two. I don't think either argument makes a lot of sense, but I think it's important to distinguish between them and to be aware of what we're talking about.

So if we start with the security of the Greenlanders, then until this January, there really was no military threat against Greenland or the Greenlanders. It is by far the lowest tension area in the Arctic. When you have to figure out how big a threat is in an area, you have to look at the capabilities and the intentions of potential adversaries. And if you make that calculation, you will find that there is really a very, very low risk of a Russian invasion in Greenland. Or a Chinese for that matter. They keep talking about the Chinese as well. That's just something that's not going to happen.

One of the reasons for that is the climate. It is an extremely tough environment to operate in from a military point of view. Making a military invasion of Greenland would be a more or less hopeless project from a Russian point of view. If we, for example, say that Russia was going to invade and occupy the part of Greenland that is closest to Russia, then that would be in the northeastern part of Greenland.

If we have an invasion force that suddenly establishes itself in northeast Greenland, the appropriate response from Denmark or other NATO partners, the United States, would not be to have another big land military force to go and counter that. That would not be the response we would have. Instead, this would be something that would mostly be handled by the air force. It would be an air force operation to take them out. The chances that they would bring appropriate air defense systems with them, the Russians in this case, are very small. And if they did establish, let's say, S-300 or S-400 systems in Greenland, those would be taken out. And then it would be an easy task for an air force to annihilate this invasion force in northeastern Greenland.

You could also just attack the supplies, the supply ships that would be needed – it would take many supplies to sustain such a force in that area. So it would be very easy to deal with an invasion. You can, of course, make the argument that Denmark has not invested enough in its air force. But I think it's a little far-fetched to say that that is what J.D. Vance has in mind here, that he thinks we should have an air force that would be able to do this without other air forces from NATO. That would just not make sense.

So, in general, I don't think it makes sense to talk about this thing as an invasion of Greenland, that Denmark has not done enough to counter that aspect, and that, therefore, the Greenlanders are now vulnerable.

The other argument is that Greenland is very important for the security of the United States. And that is true. I will say that there are especially two roles that Denmark plays, or that the Greenland plays in this. And this is actually one of the perils of the Greenlanders: There is really no military risk against Greenland itself. But Greenland plays an important role in the military defense of both Europe and the United States.

And there are two areas where Greenland is important here. The first one is that Greenland, as this big landmass there in the North Atlantic, creates a natural barrier for naval operations. So, that is the Western barrier of how far West Russian ships can move before they, well, hit the ground. So, that creates also what is called the GIUK gap, the waterways, we can say, between Greenland, Iceland, and down to the United Kingdom, where Russian ships will have to pass on their way from the bases in the Murmansk area and into the Atlantic.

That's an area where it's very attractive to have anti-submarine operations going on, so you can monitor the Russian submarine operations. And in case of war, this is a good area to take out the Russian submarines. So, in that sense, Greenland plays an important role for naval operations in the North Atlantic. This has nothing to do with Greenland itself. It's just because it's this land barrier in the western part of that ocean.

The other role that Greenland plays is that it's important for early warning against missile attacks from Russia against the United States itself. So, Greenland plays an important role in the homeland defense of the United States because they have the big space base in what used to be called Thule, but now is Pituffik. So, this is something that is really important. And the problem with having a base like that is that once you have the base, the base itself is there, it's working, then you will also want to protect that base against Russian airstrikes, for example.

You can say that there are probably today too few capabilities in terms of air defense of that air base. So, this is an area where I think it would be appropriate to talk about increasing investments, increasing in air surveillance, especially in the northern or the eastern part of Greenland, and having some capabilities to take out Russian missiles so that they can't take out the Pituffik Space Base as a part of an attack on the United States.

These are the two main categories of military challenges. There is the question of the military protection of Greenland itself and the Greenlanders. And then there is the question of these other things where Greenland is a part of a broader theater that is basically about European or North American security.

And in general, I would say that if we look at the question of the safety of Greenlanders, then Denmark has done more or less what it made sense to do. It would not make sense to have a big Arctic force, for example, in Greenland because it would mostly be an air force operation in case of any kind of direct threat against Greenland. And all the resources that Denmark would use to build that would be resources not spent in the Baltic area, for example, where there is a much greater risk of a direct confrontation, a land military invasion that Denmark would have to deal with.

So, that is one aspect. Then there is the other one about anti-submarine warfare in the North Atlantic, where Greenland plays a role because it's this western border of the maritime theater. And there, I think it's fair to say that Denmark could and should have done more in investing in more capable ships at an earlier point. And there is the question of air defense, especially of the Pituffik Space Base.

And I think it's fair to direct some criticism against Denmark for not having capabilities there. But the problem is here, I think it's such massive investments that this is probably something that Denmark would have to do in cooperation with the Americans. So, it would also be about American investments, and it would be something that there would need to be a discussion about. That if there is this space base in northern Greenland, then a part of having that space base is also to have the protection of that space base. So, there is a discussion to be had there.

But I think those are the most important aspects to be aware about when talking about Greenlandic security and in hearing the arguments that J.D. Vance and others from the American administration are making. And the most important thing in this is really to be aware that when they are talking about the military defense and protection of Greenlanders themselves, then that makes no sense. That really, there is no Russian threat against the Greenlanders. And if the Russians did anything against Greenland, if there was a Russian invasion of Greenland, it would be an air force operation to take them out. It would not be a land war going on in Greenland.

And that ultimately, the way things look right now, the only credible military threat against the Greenlanders is actually the United States. It's very difficult to see either Russia or China or anyone else playing that role. So, until January, there really was no military threat against the Greenlanders. But, well, it's strange times. Let's just put it that way to hear the American president, vice president, all kinds of other American officials talking about these things.

Alright, that's what I wanted to cover here. Thanks for watching.