Meeting between Putin and Trump — first thoughts

Hello,

In this video I discuss the meeting between Putin and Trump that has been announced. Since I recorded it, the confusion about the meeting has only grown bigger, and it now looks less sure that it will take place. It will be interesting to see what comes of it, but in either case, it is hard to see that it will bring anything good for the peace process in Ukraine.

Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

It has been confirmed that there will be a meeting between Trump and Putin in the near future, probably next week. I thought I'd share my quick thoughts about it. So let's talk about it.

The meeting between Trump and Putin has now been confirmed by both the American and the Russian sides. On the one hand, it is significant because it's always important when there is a meeting at that level. The last time Putin met with an American president was a meeting with Biden that happened before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. So this is not something that happens all the time.

Since Trump took office and the whole process of talks between the Trump administration and the Kremlin began, it has been kind of predictable that at some point there would probably be a meeting between the two presidents. This is something that Trump especially has clearly been eager to do. And frankly, it has seemed like the Russians were holding it off because they wanted perhaps to dangle the possibility of a personal meeting with Putin as a kind of prize for Trump, something that he could strive for by continuing the dialogue with the Russian side.

And now it appears that the meeting is actually going to happen. Recently, there has been a lot of talk about how Trump was getting frustrated with the Russians because they hadn't made any progress on the peace process regarding Ukraine. But I think it's also quite possible that Trump's frustration actually stemmed from the fact that the Russians weren't making any moves toward arranging this personal meeting with him.

I think the Russians probably made a mistake when the peace process in Istanbul began back in May. The delegation that they sent was basically a group of nobodies. And at that time, Trump was already then talking about the possibility of going to Istanbul himself if there could be an in-person meeting between him and Putin. But the Russians sent a guy named Medinsky, who's a complete nobody, and that was clearly not received well by the Americans.

So what I'm saying with all this is that I think this meeting, which is going to take place soon and will be all over the media, it's the result of a long process where the Americans have been trying to set up this meeting because Donald Trump was personally interested in it. The Russians are now agreeing to it because they felt that if they didn't, there could be negative consequences. They had basically reached the end of the road in terms of how far they could delay this meeting without facing those consequences.

But that also means that it would be a mistake to see this meeting as particularly important in terms of being a step in a peace process regarding the war in Ukraine. It still seems that the Americans have this idea that if they can just get Donald Trump and Putin and Zelensky together in a room, then they can talk things out.

But there's absolutely nothing in the real world that suggests that that is actually a feasible possibility. We're still at a point in the war where, from a military point of view, the war has not been decided. Both sides are still standing, and both sides can look at what's happening on the front lines and see indications that things are going okay for them. Both sides still interpret the situation as though time is on their side. So neither side feels an enormous pressure to give in to the demands that the other side has.

And at the same time, the two positions held by Ukraine and Russia are not compatible. It comes back to this thing I keep repeating that there is a fundamental misunderstanding in the West about what the war is actually about. People often assume that it's a war about territory in eastern Ukraine, and they think that it's just a matter of deciding where the border should be and then peace can follow.

If that were the case, then you could indeed have a compromise. You could have negotiations like, "well, you get that town, I get that town", and then you can settle it.

But that's not what the war is about. The war is ultimately about the sovereignty and political control of all of Ukraine. I've made several videos about this, that Russia's goal remains to achieve political control over all of Ukraine. And Ukraine's goal, obviously, is to become independent of Russian influence and to ensure that Russia can never again exercise control over Ukrainian politics.

And those two viewpoints are simply not compatible. And nothing has changed. Putin just last week reiterated that Russia's goals with the war are unchanged, and that the demands that he outlined in a big speech last year, they still stand.

This means that from a practical point of view, in terms of actually starting a peace process for the war in Ukraine, there is no movement on the Russian side. I don't think there is any reason to assume that that will change just because there's going to be a meeting between Putin and Trump.

So unfortunately, I think that the way we should understand this upcoming meeting between the two presidents is that it's still part of the same process that's been going on ever since Trump took office back in January. The Russians have been interested in having negotiations and using that as a tool to pacify the Americans, both in terms of sanctions on Russia and in terms of military support for Ukraine.

But they're not actually interested in achieving or reaching any concrete results. And the meeting is just another way to delay things and to keep the conversation going without actually making progress. Because that gives Russia better conditions to continue the war.

So, what do I think will then happen at this meeting? I think the Russians are going to try to find ways to give Donald Trump something that will satisfy him and force the Ukrainians to say no. And that could probably prolong the process, where Trump ends up being angry at the Ukrainians instead for obstructing a peace process that, from his perspective, was already in motion. He might believe that there was a good plan, one that he and Putin had laid out. And if Zelensky would just agree to it, then the war would be over. But now these stubborn Ukrainians are, in his view, holding things up.

So this would be a good outcome for Russia. There's been talk about how the Russians might suggest something like a partial ceasefire in long-range airstrikes. That could be framed as maybe a first step towards some kind of broader process. It might mean an end to strikes to hitting Ukrainian cities, for example. But it would also mean that the Ukrainians would not be able to strike Russian production facilities and logistics with their airstrikes.

It's important to understand just how intense the Ukrainian airstrikes actually are on Russia right now, especially targeting Russia's railroad logistics. This could have significant consequences for the Russian war machine and its ability to sustain the ongoing offensive. And it's something the Ukrainians have really been doing a lot over the last couple of weeks and months.

So this is something that Putin could perhaps suggest to Trump. What if we make a partial ceasefire? We can call it a pause in the long-range air war. So we stop bombing Ukrainian cities. That would sound like a good first step.

That could really create problems for the Ukrainians, because they would then have to explain to Trump why they would reject that. Or either they would have to agree to something that could seriously hurt their long-term strategy for how they can win the war and make it unfeasible for Russia to continue the war, or they can reject this plan and face the fallout of Trump being angry and all the consequences that might follow from that.

So I think what we should expect is that the Russians will use this upcoming meeting between Putin and Trump as an opportunity to stall the peace process while ostensibly keeping the dialogue going and making sure that in the coming months, Trump's dissatisfaction will be directed towards the Ukrainians and not the Russians.

I also think that a kind of secondary goal with this whole thing will be to sideline the rest of the European countries. They want to isolate Ukraine to the extent that the dialogue happens primarily between Russia and the United States. And then the United States will be informing the Ukrainians what the result is. And all the European countries will have no say in the process.

So we should probably expect the Europeans and the Ukrainians to push back against this and to try to stick together and to insist that the European countries will get a seat at the table so they can support Ukraine's point of view.

And in that sense, this upcoming meeting is also an opportunity for Putin to drive a wedge between the United States and the European NATO countries, since they have different views on what's happening and what Europe's role should be in it.

All right, that was just my quick reaction to the news, there is going to be a personal meeting between Putin and Trump. If you found the video helpful or informative, then please give it a like. And also remember to subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon to get notifications when I publish new videos. If you want to support the channel, you can subscribe to my newsletter and get access to bonus videos on www.logicofwar.com. Thank you very much for watching, and I will see you again next time.