The culture of lying in the Russian MoD

When Andrey Belousov replaced Sergey Shoigu as defense minister of Russia last month, there were many expectations attached to this appointment. Belousov was an outsider from the Defense Ministry, an economist by trade, and he has a reputation as an effective technocrat. The appointment of Belousov was seen by many as Putin’s attempt to improve Russia’s wartime economy and ensure that the Armed Forces will be able to sustain the war in the long run.

Belousov’s appointment was accompanied by several cases against high-ranking officers who were arrested on charges of corruption. This contributed to the picture that Belousov was put in this position to clean up the Ministry of Defense. The picture of the effective bureaucrat in charge of the Defense Ministry to streamline processes and create efficiency has been particularly prevalent among Western commentators. In Russian circles there have been similar interpretations, but it has been accompanied by speculations about power struggles between different fractions in the Russian elite. In that sense, the Russian take has been more nuanced, which is not surprising given that they have a better understanding of how the system works.

But nevertheless, also within the Russian commentariat and blogosphere there has been a noticeable optimism that Belousov would be able to clean up the system and provide better conditions for the soldiers on the frontline. Especially among the hardline Z-commentators on the political right, there has been enthusiasm that Putin is finally doing something about the problems that were created under the deeply unpopular defense minister Shoigu.

"It's okay to make mistakes, but you can never lie"

One of the big problems that the Z-crowd often complains about is what they call a culture of lying in the Defense Ministry and the general staff. Everyone knows that statements from the Defense Ministry are notoriously unreliable, and that the generals lie to make situations look better than they really are. The daily briefings by Defense Ministry spokesperson general Igor Konashenkov have become a standing joke for the outrageous claims about achievements of the Russian army, and how much Ukrainian equipment they have destroyed.

It is a concern in Russian military circles that there is a layer of bureaucrats in the system that gives distorted information to the president to make themselves look good rather than providing a real picture of how things are. Z-bloggers will often blame the “lying military bureaucrats” for the bad conditions on the frontline, because they keep important information from the president and use their power for embezzlement rather than doing what’s best for the country.

It therefore created a lot of enthusiasm among these people when Belousov started his term as defense minister by proclaiming that “it is okay to make mistakes, but you can never lie”. Finally a person in charge who is ready to do something about the culture of lies!

Interestingly, this was a talking point that also made Prigozhin popular among the soldiers back in the days. Prigozhin and Belousov have very different appearances, but apparently they shared this ideal of honesty and intolerance of BS.

"You can never lie"

Jump ahead three weeks, and Andrey Belousov announces the achievements of the Russian military in Ukraine. In the month of May, the Ukrainians have lost:

·         over 35,000 soldiers
·         over 2700 pieces of equipment
·         290 tanks
·         four Abrams tanks
·         seven Leopard tanks
·         12 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles
·         11 airplanes
·         four helicopters
·         730 pieces of tube and rocket artillery

And the Russians have successfully shut down:

·         more than 1000 drones
·         more than 250 HIMARS and Vampire missiles
·         more than 80 Hammer guided bombs
·         50 ATACMS ballistic missiles
·         eight Storm Shadow cruise missiles

Oh well, so much for putting an end to the culture of systematic lying. These numbers are so outrageous that we are right back in Konashenkov territory. It is hard to say what the source of these clearly exaggerated numbers is. Some of it is probably overreporting from the frontline units, and some of it is likely invented in the general staff. But when Belousov presents these numbers in the public, he is signaling his willingness to continue the practices of lying about military achievements. Everyone in Russia with an above average understanding of the war knows that these numbers are wrong, yet Belousov still puts his name behind them.

Honest officers are dangerous

It is hard to change organizational culture. In my newsletter about the reshuffle in the Russian government I hinted that the primary concern in the appointment of Belousov was to strengthen Putin’s control of the Defense Ministry and coup proofing the system. Then there is a secondary desire to actually improve efficiency and solve some of the problems that Russia is facing in the war. But the order of priorities is clear: coup proofing comes first and efficiency comes later.

I therefore doubt that Belousov will turn out to be particularly efficient in doing something about corruption and the culture of lying. The simple reality is that it is not his job. If he turned out to be massively successful in creating an effective and powerful military organization where honest officers with a can-do attitude were empowered, then that is effectively the opposite of coup proofing the system. Such people are necessary to fight a war, but they cannot be allowed to make the final calls or to reach the top of the system. They must be kept under control of people who set regime security above the needs of the soldiers.

Lying and corruption serve a purpose in such a system, and I think that inevitably people will be disappointed if they expect Mr. “you can never lie” to do anything groundbreaking about it.