Why is it so difficult to open the Strait of Hormuz?

In this video, I discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where Donald Trump seems increasingly frustrated that he can't find solutions to make Iran open the strait for maritime traffic again.

Watch the video here or read the transcript below.

Best,
Anders

Transcript:

The Strait of Hormuz is closed and it threatens to start a major economic crisis, maybe even a global recession. Trump seems to be looking for a way out of the war in Iran and it looks like he would like other countries, especially the Europeans, to take over the responsibility of getting the Strait of Hormuz opened again. In this video I want to discuss why it's so difficult to reopen the Strait and also why I think that Trump's idea of other countries solving that part of the issue is not going to work. So let's talk about it.

The Strait of Humus is one of the most important maritime choke points in the world, and it's vital for the global economy that maritime goods, especially oil, can pass through the strait. So when it's closed, it becomes a problem for everyone. If the strait remains closed for a long period of time, we may face the prospect of a global recession due to the interruptions that there are in maritime trade.

Right now, the strait is closed because Iran has taken that action as a reaction to the attacks that Israel and the United States began in the end of February. Iran is saying that they will start charging fees, so in the future it will cost 2 million US dollars for any ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With more than 100 ships that pass the strait every day, that will generate an income of over 200 million US dollars. So it's quite a lot of money that Iran will be earning from this.

The idea that states that are located near a strait can charge a fee for passage goes against pretty much all principles that there are of international maritime law. And it sets a precedent that is totally unacceptable for pretty much the entire global community. If Iran can charge a fee for the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, why wouldn't Oman not also demand a fee for the passage? After all, it's Iran on one side of the strait and Oman on the other. So I guess they have equal rights to do that.

And if they can do it, why wouldn't the Houthis in Yemen also, for example, demand a fee for the passage through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait? Or how about Denmark demanding a fee for passage through the Danish Straits? I mean, of course, I could see that idea having some appeal. But in general, I think the principles of freedom of navigation and unhindered passage through international straits are good, and that it's something that countries across the globe need to stand up for.

So it's totally unacceptable that Iran would be allowed to do this going forward. And I think it's pretty fair to assume that the permanent situation on the other side of this war will not involve Iran charging fees for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The question is only what Iran will need in return for not doing that, because obviously they will demand some concessions.

The situation with the Strait of Hormuz has therefore put the American president in a kind of double bind. It's clear that Donald Trump would like the war in Iran to be a matter that ideally would already be over with by now. He would like to declare victory, go home, and avoid escalating the conflict into something that would require putting boots on the ground and turning it into a land war. But it's also clear that he cannot leave as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed because that seriously damages the American economy. And he also can't give Iran very large concessions for reopening the Strait because that would make him look like a loser in the war.

So it's turned into a very bad strategic situation for Donald Trump. And his frustration is becoming palpable. It's very clear that he wants this problem to go away. He repeatedly calls on other countries to take responsibility for the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. His idea seems to be that the United States and Israel have now degraded Iran's military in so many ways and that this is good for everyone. So now other countries should come and do this little thing of just reopening the Strait because that's the least they can do.

But of course, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not actually a trivial matter. Because if it were a trivial matter, then the United States would just do it themselves. The reason they're not doing it themselves is that they don't actually know how to do it.

It's also an extremely dangerous military operation if you start working in that area. So if you want to, for example, start escorting convoys through the Strait of Hormuz, that's something that would require enormous maritime resources. And it would be extremely dangerous because you would have to operate very close to the Iranian shore where they can launch drones and missiles and maritime drones at you. And there might be mines in the water. So you can never feel safe.

And the coastline is very long. There are many ways that Iran could launch these cheap assets. It would be almost impossible to control this entire coastline. Iran could target the merchant ships, of course, that you're trying to escort. But they could also target the warships themselves. And If Iran chooses to go down that route, then it would lead to massive casualties when the warships start burning and sinking in the Strait of Hormuz.

Just to be technical for a minute, what you need for a job like this is what's called sea control. That means that you need to dominate the area so much that you have the control that is required to use the sea for your own purposes. In this case, that would be the transit of maritime trade.

That will typically require large surface warships, such as frigates and destroyers that are equipped with helicopters and have a strong weapons package with long-range air defense missiles and that have the manpower and the sensors to have amazing situational awareness. Like these are the types of capabilities you would normally use for that.

I've seen that Ukraine has tried to market its solution with maritime drones as a way to solve this problem. But unfortunately, I don't think that this is an area where Ukraine's drone technology is the right solution. Ukraine has built fantastic sea denial capabilities with these drones, but they don't have the solution for how to achieve sea control with unmanned systems.

In fact, this is the problem that navies across the world are looking at right now. What Ukraine has done in the Black Sea is to demonstrate that operations that require sea control in areas that are close to the enemy's coastline, such as what is needed in Hormuz, might be impossible to conduct safely until the defense industry has caught up and has developed countermeasures to these maritime drones, or maybe has developed even better unmanned systems that are capable enough to even replace the frigates and the destroyers so you can operate without sending your warships into the area. But right now, that technology does not exist.

So that's the reason why no other country is enthusiastic about the idea of solving this problem for Donald Trump. Now, I do think that if the Americans actually pull out and just leave the situation as it is, then eventually we are going to see other countries starting to take responsibility for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. And that would include European countries, but it would also include other countries.

But these countries are not eager to get involved because it's a mess of a situation. And also because they feel that this is a problem that the Trump administration has created without consulting anybody. They feel that it should be up to the Americans to fix this thing that they have broken.

And also, I think it's also just important not to underestimate the extent to which the European countries feel betrayed by the United States, both for abandoning Ukraine and also for the threats about invading Greenland. That's just a few months ago. So the idea that we now need to show solidarity with the Americans seems very strange from a European perspective.

So what I'm getting at here is that Donald Trump's idea of just leaving Iran and letting it be up to other countries to solve the problem of the Strait of Hormuz is not going to work for him because no other country is ready to do that in the short term. Other countries would get involved, but it would be a very long process. It would take a long time before anything happens.

First, nothing is going to happen while the war is still going on. As long as the Americans and the Israelis are still bombing Iran, no other country will begin to take action. But then also after that, what we would see would be that other countries would try to work diplomatically with Iran to try to persuade them to reopen the straits. Possibly they would try to make different kinds of deals and give concessions, maybe sanctions relief or other benefits that Iran could get for doing so. But it could take a very long time. And the countries that would be doing this, they would be trying to do that because they want to solve this problem in a diplomatic way rather than going straight to military action.

And then after that, if diplomacy doesn't work, then perhaps we could see other countries begin to deploy warships to try to push it through. But it would take a very long time, and in the meantime, there would be a massive economic crisis that would also hit the United States. Obviously, there would be a tremendous domestic pressure on Donald Trump to actually do something about it and not just sit around and wait while the Europeans are conducting talks with the Iranians.

And therefore, in practice, it's not possible for Trump to just leave and get out of the war before this problem with Hormuz has been solved. And that's why, overall, I also think that it's more likely that we will see the war escalate in the coming weeks rather than ending. Donald Trump needs to figure out how to solve this problem.

The only way to do that seems to be by deploying ground forces and trying to take control of the region in that way. The problem is that taking control of Hormuz with a land invasion is also a massive task that probably goes beyond what the United States is capable of right now. They just don't have that many soldiers ready to be deployed. And it could also easily turn into an intense fight where the Americans could take heavy casualties.

So, yeah, Donald Trump has really painted himself into a corner where it seems like increasingly there are only bad options. But unfortunately, the trend seems to be toward more escalation rather than the conflict ending.

Okay, I will end it here. If you found the video helpful or informative, please give it a like. And also remember to subscribe to the channel and click the bell icon to get notifications when I upload new videos. If you want to support the channel and get access to bonus videos, you can subscribe to my newsletter at www.logicofwar.com. Thank you very much for watching, and I will see you again next time.

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